TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tomas Kanka vs Roman Merkl 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511611116117118
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRoman Merkl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Kanka above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 87 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Roman Merkl at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kanka 20–24 Roman Merkl Tomas Kanka has won 20 of their 44 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:28What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Merkl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-24 in 44
Merkl
Wrong
gap of 4 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanka 1513 vs Merkl 1537
Merkl
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanka 20% vs Merkl 60%
Merkl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanka 30% vs Merkl 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanka +1 · Merkl -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Merkl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kanka form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanka 1.83 / Merkl 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Merkl)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13196136
Kanka1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Merkl1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKanka5wins
AwayMerkl5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKanka50%2 of 4
AwayMerkl50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanka4Merkl6n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S2Kanka5Merkl5n = 10split evenly
S3Kanka4Merkl6n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S4Kanka5Merkl3n = 8Kanka took 5 of 8
S5Kanka3Merkl2n = 5Kanka took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKankaMerklK − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.140.9+0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKankaMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 381 vs 265 / 55547.8%47.8%182 / 381 vs 265 / 555Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MerklKanka 1.83/Merkl 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Merkl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kanka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 06:30T. Kanka351111133R. Merkl2586110
LAug 22 · 06:00T. Kanka35881181R. Merkl3811115113
LAug 15 · 06:30T. Kanka205780R. Merkl331111113
LJul 27 · 16:13T. Kanka571314131072R. Merkl6111121512113
LJul 27 · 15:15T. Kanka4281141542R. Merkl551191113113
LJul 1 · 13:30T. Kanka36119971R. Merkl3851111113
WJun 25 · 21:08T. Kanka507111011113R. Merkl4511512892
WJun 25 · 20:00T. Kanka47941111123R. Merkl49111189102
WMay 22 · 16:00T. Kanka485111011113R. Merkl3911312762
WMay 16 · 07:15T. Kanka4111811113R. Merkl26511461
T. Kanka10
LSep 26 · 06:15T. Kanka2.38711513102Z. Kuksa1.531171111123WSep 25 · 16:13P. Provaznik1.44691151T. Kanka2.6311119113LSep 25 · 15:15T. Kanka1.73111011982A. Pavlik2.00612711113LSep 25 · 14:15T. Kanka2.631191181P. Provaznik1.4413114103LSep 25 · 13:15T. Kanka2.38116891L. Kolman1.5391111113LSep 20 · 08:33T. Kanka1.73911851D. Brichacek2.0011611113LSep 20 · 08:00T. Kanka2.2048110P. Orlowski1.611111133LSep 20 · 06:30L. Kolman1.50111196113T. Kanka2.5069111182WSep 20 · 06:00D. Brichacek1.6110880T. Kanka2.201211113LSep 12 · 08:24T. Kanka2.2018760Z. Kuksa1.612011113
R. Merkl10
LSep 25 · 13:08M. Svitac1.5711118113R. Merkl2.25851141LSep 25 · 12:00R. Merkl2.251151011102M. Svitac1.57711124123WSep 25 · 10:30Z. Kuksa1.7311211872R. Merkl2.00711511113WSep 25 · 10:00L. Smazik1.53117691R. Merkl2.3861111113WSep 21 · 16:18O. Horak3.0071060R. Merkl1.361112113WSep 21 · 15:15R. Merkl1.531111123O. Horak2.3897100LSep 21 · 14:15R. Merkl2.10111410452P. Hala1.675121211113LSep 21 · 13:15R. Merkl2.2512119532V. Lopata1.571011111113LSep 17 · 16:23R. Merkl1.9111117182P. Provaznik1.80941111113LSep 17 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.83117511113R. Merkl1.8331111682
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