TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Mikhail Taranko vs Roman Merkl 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114118511116––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRoman Merkl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMikhail Taranko above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 67 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Roman Merkl at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Mikhail Taranko 18–17 Roman Merkl Roman Merkl has won 17 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:23What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Taranko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-17 in 35
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Taranko 1476 vs Merkl 1520
Merkl
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Taranko 20% vs Merkl 40%
Merkl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Taranko 30% vs Merkl 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Taranko -1 · Merkl -3
Merkl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Taranko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTaranko 1.80 / Merkl 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Taranko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13196670
Taranko1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 16 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it75% 9 of 12
Merkl1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 86 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back40% 40 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back20% 9 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTaranko6wins
AwayMerkl4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTaranko leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTaranko66.7%4 of 6
AwayMerkl50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Taranko6Merkl4n = 10Taranko took 6 of 10
S2Taranko7Merkl3n = 10Taranko took 7 of 10
S3Taranko4Merkl6n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S4Taranko4Merkl6n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S5Taranko3Merkl2n = 5Taranko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTarankoMerklT − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match46.044.2+1.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTarankoMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 159 vs 265 / 55746.5%47.6%74 / 159 vs 265 / 557Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TarankoTaranko 1.80/Merkl 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Taranko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Taranko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 06:45M. Taranko3811115113R. Merkl29481161
LAug 1 · 06:15M. Taranko461316981R. Merkl51111811113
WJul 26 · 07:15M. Taranko3911116113R. Merkl27261181
LMay 24 · 08:53M. Taranko5698141692R. Merkl5911111214113
WMay 24 · 05:15M. Taranko531111119113R. Merkl5099131182
WMay 9 · 08:54M. Taranko4181111113R. Merkl33118771
WMay 9 · 06:15M. Taranko46412118113R. Merkl45111071162
WMay 3 · 07:15M. Taranko51111477123R. Merkl528121111102
LMar 29 · 08:48M. Taranko5491811882R. Merkl571116811113
LMar 29 · 05:45M. Taranko36118981R. Merkl3961111113
M. Taranko10
LSep 26 · 07:15T. Kanka1.5011611113M. Taranko2.50611421LSep 26 · 05:45M. Taranko1.67571181Z. Kuksa2.1011119113WSep 19 · 08:43M. Taranko2.001111113Z. Kuksa1.739850LSep 19 · 07:45Z. Kuksa2.001113113M. Taranko1.7391190LSep 19 · 06:45M. Soukup1.801111113M. Taranko1.916880LSep 19 · 05:15J. Botka2.20111112113M. Taranko1.61651441LSep 12 · 08:54D. Brichacek1.4081111113M. Taranko2.75119961WSep 12 · 07:15M. Taranko1.73711127113Z. Kuksa2.00116101172LSep 12 · 06:15M. Taranko2.633870D. Brichacek1.441111113WSep 12 · 05:15M. Taranko2.6351115113T. Kanka1.441141391
R. Merkl10
LSep 26 · 07:45Z. Kuksa1.731111113R. Merkl2.008890LSep 26 · 05:15T. Kanka1.83561111113R. Merkl1.8311116782LSep 25 · 13:08M. Svitac1.5711118113R. Merkl2.25851141LSep 25 · 12:00R. Merkl2.251151011102M. Svitac1.57711124123WSep 25 · 10:30Z. Kuksa1.7311211872R. Merkl2.00711511113WSep 25 · 10:00L. Smazik1.53117691R. Merkl2.3861111113WSep 21 · 16:18O. Horak3.0071060R. Merkl1.361112113WSep 21 · 15:15R. Merkl1.531111123O. Horak2.3897100LSep 21 · 14:15R. Merkl2.10111410452P. Hala1.675121211113LSep 21 · 13:15R. Merkl2.2512119532V. Lopata1.571011111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Taranko
Nothing scheduled
R. Merkl
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