TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jakub Simek vs Petr Provaznik 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91114121214119811
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:31 and never touched: 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeJakub Simek to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Jakub Simek @ 1.73 · Lost
How it is goingJakub Simek above · Petr Provaznik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 111 set 5, 8-11 · our read held Jakub Simek at 57.3%
111 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Simek 17–12 Petr Provaznik Petr Provaznik has won 12 of their 29 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:3157.3%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 0.6pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Simek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-12 in 29
Simek
Wrong
gap of 5 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simek 1557 vs Provaznik 1518
Simek
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simek 40% vs Provaznik 20%
Simek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simek 50% vs Provaznik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Simek -1 · Provaznik -4
Provaznik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Simek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Provaznik form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimek 1.727 / Provaznik 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Simek)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13219413
Simek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 10 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Provaznik2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 32 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back33% 13 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSimek7wins
AwayProvaznik3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSimek leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimek100%3 of 3
AwayProvaznik42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simek3Provaznik7n = 10Provaznik took 7 of 10
S2Simek2Provaznik8n = 10Provaznik took 8 of 10
S3Simek9Provaznik1n = 10Simek took 9 of 10
S4Simek5Provaznik3n = 8Simek took 5 of 8
S5Simek5Provaznik1n = 6Simek took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSimekProvaznikS − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.441.9+0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimekProvaznikBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 167 vs 226 / 47350.3%47.8%84 / 167 vs 226 / 473Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SimekSimek 1.73/Provaznik 2.00
Miss
What we said
57.3%
Simek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jakub Simek @ 1.73 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Provaznik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 14:15J. Simek47711117113P. Provaznik4211761172
LAug 12 · 10:00J. Simek3810711101P. Provaznik3812113123
LAug 5 · 11:30J. Simek236980P. Provaznik331111113
LFeb 24 · 14:30J. Simek50911111272P. Provaznik541113910113
WFeb 18 · 16:15J. Simek46124134133P. Provaznik5410111111112
WNov 12 · 16:30J. Simek45751111113P. Provaznik4411114992
WNov 7 · 17:47J. Simek471131111113P. Provaznik4413115962
WNov 7 · 15:45J. Simek4211812113P. Provaznik356111081
WNov 5 · 11:00J. Simek411118123P. Provaznik34816100
WOct 21 · 18:00J. Simek45391111113P. Provaznik4111117842
J. Simek10
LSep 30 · 10:30J. Simek2.001161011112L. Smazik1.73711129133WSep 30 · 09:30J. Simek1.801111113T. Hrstka1.917670LSep 26 · 16:26D. Brichacek1.83111193J. Simek1.838380LSep 26 · 15:15J. Simek2.2599111192D. Brichacek1.57111187103WSep 26 · 14:15J. Simek1.911212910103L. Kolman1.801010111292WSep 26 · 13:15J. Simek1.50111183R. Merkl2.509950WSep 18 · 12:19J. Simek2.1011118113T. Hucko1.67651171LSep 18 · 11:15T. Hucko1.67961111113J. Simek2.1011117362LSep 18 · 10:45J. Simek2.10761171M. Svitac1.6711115113WSep 18 · 09:45J. Simek2.25671112113P. Oplt1.57111141082
P. Provaznik10
LSep 30 · 11:00P. Provaznik1.9181170T. Hrstka1.801113113LSep 30 · 10:00P. Provaznik2.75611561L. Smazik1.4011811113LSep 25 · 16:13P. Provaznik1.44691151T. Kanka2.6311119113LSep 25 · 15:45P. Provaznik2.206780L. Kolman1.611111113WSep 25 · 14:15T. Kanka2.631191181P. Provaznik1.4413114103LSep 25 · 13:45A. Pavlik2.1011115113P. Provaznik1.67981141WSep 17 · 16:23R. Merkl1.9111117182P. Provaznik1.80941111113WSep 17 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.83117511113R. Merkl1.8331111682LSep 17 · 14:15P. Provaznik1.738111091V. Lopata2.0011912113WSep 17 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.50111159153P. Hala1.50881111132
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