TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Libor Smazik vs Tomas Hrstka 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119115––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:45 and never touched: 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeLibor Smazik to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLibor Smazik above · Tomas Hrstka below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 53 set 3, 11-5 · our read held Libor Smazik at 57.7%
53 points played in total.
H2H Libor Smazik 0–1 Tomas Hrstka Libor Smazik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4557.7%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 4.2pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Smazik
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Smazik 1486 vs Hrstka 1547
Hrstka
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smazik 60% vs Hrstka 40%
Smazik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smazik 40% vs Hrstka 60%
Hrstka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smazik +3 · Hrstka +1
Smazik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Smazik) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmazik 1.615 / Hrstka 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Smazik)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13219498
Smazik1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite46% won 45 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it67% 35 of 52
Hrstka2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 16 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back27% 6 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSmazik0wins
AwayHrstka1wins
Hrstka leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSmazikHrstkaS − HBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match36.042.0−6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmazikHrstkaBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 410 vs 34 / 7449.8%46%204 / 410 vs 34 / 74Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SmazikSmazik 1.61/Hrstka 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Smazik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Smazik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 16 · 11:45L. Smazik36119791T. Hrstka4291111113
L. Smazik10
LSep 30 · 13:08L. Smazik1.67111111101J. Simek2.1013138123WSep 30 · 10:30J. Simek2.001161011112L. Smazik1.73711129133WSep 30 · 10:00P. Provaznik2.75611561L. Smazik1.4011811113WSep 25 · 12:38L. Smazik2.201211143Z. Kuksa1.61106120LSep 25 · 11:30Z. Kuksa1.911111113L. Smazik1.808680LSep 25 · 11:00L. Smazik1.83591171M. Svitac1.8311119113LSep 25 · 10:00L. Smazik1.53117691R. Merkl2.3861111113LSep 23 · 12:18L. Smazik1.807290T. Hybl1.911111113LSep 23 · 11:45L. Smazik1.44811321V. Lopata2.6311711113WSep 23 · 10:15T. Hybl1.83391571L. Smazik1.83111113113
T. Hrstka10
LSep 30 · 12:38T. Hrstka1.676711101P. Provaznik2.1011113123WSep 30 · 11:00P. Provaznik1.9181170T. Hrstka1.801113113LSep 30 · 09:30J. Simek1.801111113T. Hrstka1.917670LSep 21 · 12:58M. Svitac1.5711811113T. Hrstka2.25711951WSep 21 · 12:00T. Hrstka2.6311911113M. Svitac1.44911551LSep 21 · 10:30Z. Kuksa2.101181112113T. Hrstka1.6781191432WSep 21 · 10:00M. Hajek1.619111611102T. Hrstka2.20118186123LSep 16 · 12:49T. Hrstka2.5061151372Z. Vasatko1.501181111113WSep 16 · 11:45L. Smazik1.50119791T. Hrstka2.5091111113WSep 16 · 10:45Z. Vasatko1.336111421T. Hrstka3.2511616113
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