TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Adam Pavlik vs Roman Merkl 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
14129119111311911
Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Pavlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Pavlik above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 110 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Adam Pavlik at 54.0%
110 points played in total.
H2H Adam Pavlik 12–11 Roman Merkl Roman Merkl has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:56What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pavlik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-11 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavlik 1601 vs Merkl 1462
Pavlik
Wrong
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavlik 80% vs Merkl 0%
Pavlik
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavlik 60% vs Merkl 0%
Pavlik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavlik +3 · Merkl -10
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pavlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavlik 1.80 / Merkl 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pavlik)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13202925
Pavlik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 32 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it83% 24 of 29
Merkl1.91
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 10
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 86 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back39% 40 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back18% 9 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavlik6wins
AwayMerkl4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPavlik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavlik100%5 of 5
AwayMerkl80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavlik5Merkl5n = 10split evenly
S2Pavlik5Merkl5n = 10split evenly
S3Pavlik7Merkl3n = 10Pavlik took 7 of 10
S4Pavlik5Merkl3n = 8Pavlik took 5 of 8
S5Pavlik2Merkl2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavlikMerklP − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.538.5+2.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavlikMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 317 vs 264 / 55951.4%47.2%163 / 317 vs 264 / 559Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavlikPavlik 1.80/Merkl 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pavlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 08:29A. Pavlik49611139102R. Merkl541191111123
WAug 30 · 06:00A. Pavlik4611911153R. Merkl376117131
WAug 28 · 18:45A. Pavlik331111113R. Merkl259970
WAug 18 · 20:39A. Pavlik44561111113R. Merkl4211118572
LAug 18 · 18:00A. Pavlik4110614111R. Merkl48121112133
LJul 19 · 12:43A. Pavlik30611491R. Merkl4111811113
WJul 19 · 11:45A. Pavlik4211119113R. Merkl23451131
WJul 1 · 15:30A. Pavlik341111123R. Merkl2376100
WJun 29 · 15:45A. Pavlik43111812113R. Merkl46711111072
LJun 21 · 20:14A. Pavlik4393111192R. Merkl46111149113
A. Pavlik10
LSep 27 · 19:30F. Kubos2.2512611123A. Pavlik1.5710118101WSep 27 · 18:00A. Pavlik2.1011118113L. Kolman1.67491171WSep 25 · 16:45L. Kolman1.57119641A. Pavlik2.2591111113WSep 25 · 15:15T. Kanka1.73111011982A. Pavlik2.00612711113LSep 25 · 14:45A. Pavlik2.10411791L. Kolman1.6711911113WSep 25 · 13:45A. Pavlik2.1011115113P. Provaznik1.67981141WSep 19 · 20:33T. Hucko1.447950A. Pavlik2.631111113LSep 19 · 19:30A. Pavlik2.206990T. Hucko1.611111113LSep 19 · 18:30A. Pavlik2.1091112472L. Kolman1.671191011113WSep 19 · 17:30A. Pavlik2.3871111113M. Svitac1.53116891
R. Merkl10
WSep 27 · 20:00L. Kolman1.5758111192R. Merkl2.25111118113LSep 27 · 17:30F. Kubos3.25711116113R. Merkl1.3311681182WSep 26 · 16:55R. Merkl1.571111102L. Kolman2.2569100LSep 26 · 15:45L. Kolman1.61861114113R. Merkl2.20111171272LSep 26 · 14:45D. Brichacek1.91611112113R. Merkl1.8011641132LSep 26 · 13:15J. Simek1.50111183R. Merkl2.509950LSep 26 · 08:14R. Merkl1.8066111142M. Taranko1.91111178113LSep 26 · 07:45Z. Kuksa1.731111113R. Merkl2.008890LSep 26 · 06:45M. Taranko1.8011115113R. Merkl1.91481161LSep 26 · 05:15T. Kanka1.83561111113R. Merkl1.8311116782
Upcoming Matches
A. Pavlik
Nothing scheduled
R. Merkl
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