TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Leon Kolman vs Roman Merkl 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8116111171412117
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:28 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 98 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Leon Kolman at 58.9%
98 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 17–11 Roman Merkl Roman Merkl has won 11 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:28What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kolman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-11 in 28
Kolman
Correct
gap of 6 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolman 1595 vs Merkl 1456
Kolman
Correct
both rated, 140 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolman 40% vs Merkl 0%
Kolman
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolman 60% vs Merkl 20%
Kolman
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolman -3 · Merkl -8
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kolman) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 1.61 / Merkl 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Kolman)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13196737
Kolman1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 99 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it92% 45 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it71% 77 of 109
Merkl2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 8
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 86 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back40% 40 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back20% 9 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolman7wins
AwayMerkl3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman66.7%4 of 6
AwayMerkl25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman6Merkl4n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S2Kolman5Merkl5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolman6Merkl4n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S4Kolman7Merkl2n = 9Kolman took 7 of 9
S5Kolman3Merkl3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolmanMerklK − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.740.9+3.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 693 vs 265 / 56152.4%47.2%363 / 693 vs 265 / 561Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.739.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanKolman 1.61/Merkl 2.20
Miss
What we said
60.9%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 08:35L. Kolman3851111113R. Merkl33114991
LSep 13 · 07:00L. Kolman4341191182R. Merkl48117118113
WAug 30 · 08:00L. Kolman45111211113R. Merkl33614671
WAug 22 · 08:00L. Kolman53138129113R. Merkl521111101192
LAug 21 · 18:15L. Kolman43111041172R. Merkl50912117113
WJul 27 · 14:15L. Kolman331111113R. Merkl209380
WJul 6 · 17:15L. Kolman47861111113R. Merkl4111114782
WJun 27 · 20:00L. Kolman551211109133R. Merkl481041211112
WJun 19 · 07:45L. Kolman47101313113R. Merkl4012111161
LJun 15 · 15:30L. Kolman4312851172R. Merkl441011111113
L. Kolman10
LSep 26 · 16:55R. Merkl1.571111102L. Kolman2.2569100LSep 26 · 14:15J. Simek1.911212910103L. Kolman1.801010111292LSep 26 · 13:45D. Brichacek1.9181161143L. Kolman1.8011611632LSep 25 · 16:45L. Kolman1.57119641A. Pavlik2.2591111113WSep 25 · 15:45P. Provaznik2.206780L. Kolman1.611111113WSep 25 · 14:45A. Pavlik2.10411791L. Kolman1.6711911113WSep 25 · 13:15T. Kanka2.38116891L. Kolman1.5391111113LSep 20 · 17:00L. Kolman1.7311913192M. Hajek2.007111111113WSep 20 · 16:00M. Hajek1.8396110L. Kolman1.831111133WSep 20 · 15:00P. Hala1.83118811132L. Kolman1.83511117153
R. Merkl10
WSep 26 · 16:55R. Merkl1.571111102L. Kolman2.2569100LSep 26 · 14:45D. Brichacek1.91611112113R. Merkl1.8011641132LSep 26 · 13:15J. Simek1.50111183R. Merkl2.509950LSep 26 · 08:14R. Merkl1.8066111142M. Taranko1.91111178113LSep 26 · 07:45Z. Kuksa1.731111113R. Merkl2.008890LSep 26 · 06:45M. Taranko1.8011115113R. Merkl1.91481161LSep 26 · 05:15T. Kanka1.83561111113R. Merkl1.8311116782LSep 25 · 13:08M. Svitac1.5711118113R. Merkl2.25851141LSep 25 · 12:00R. Merkl2.251151011102M. Svitac1.57711124123WSep 25 · 10:30Z. Kuksa1.7311211872R. Merkl2.00711511113
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