TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Leon Kolman vs Adam Pavlik 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119911611411––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Adam Pavlik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 72 set 4, 4-11
72 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 17–10 Adam Pavlik Adam Pavlik has won 10 of their 27 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Kolman beat Pavlik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Kolman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavlik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 1.57 / Pavlik 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Kolman)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13195751
Kolman1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 96 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it92% 44 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it71% 75 of 106
Pavlik2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog50% won 34 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back27% 10 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolman8wins
AwayPavlik2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman100%5 of 5
AwayPavlik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman5Pavlik5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolman5Pavlik5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolman7Pavlik3n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S4Kolman6Pavlik1n = 7Kolman took 6 of 7
S5Kolman3Pavlik1n = 4Kolman took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolmanPavlikK − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.237.1+4.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanPavlikBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 694 vs 164 / 31952.7%51.4%366 / 694 vs 164 / 319Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanKolman 1.57/Pavlik 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pavlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 14:45L. Kolman4211911113A. Pavlik31411791
WSep 19 · 18:30L. Kolman521191011113A. Pavlik4391112472
WSep 6 · 19:15L. Kolman541191112113A. Pavlik49131181072
WAug 30 · 07:00L. Kolman46129311113A. Pavlik43101111742
LAug 15 · 12:20L. Kolman4591111682A. Pavlik51119911113
WAug 15 · 09:15L. Kolman4181111113A. Pavlik35118971
WJun 24 · 13:45L. Kolman48151111113A. Pavlik42178891
WMay 26 · 14:30L. Kolman331111113A. Pavlik249780
WMay 9 · 08:24L. Kolman331111113A. Pavlik205960
LMay 9 · 06:45L. Kolman187650A. Pavlik331111113
L. Kolman10
WSep 25 · 15:45P. Provaznik2.206780L. Kolman1.611111113WSep 25 · 14:45A. Pavlik2.10411791L. Kolman1.6711911113WSep 25 · 13:15T. Kanka2.38116891L. Kolman1.5391111113LSep 20 · 17:00L. Kolman1.7311913192M. Hajek2.007111111113WSep 20 · 16:00M. Hajek1.8396110L. Kolman1.831111133WSep 20 · 15:00P. Hala1.83118811132L. Kolman1.83511117153WSep 20 · 13:30L. Provaznik1.73511711102L. Kolman2.00117119123LSep 20 · 09:03P. Orlowski1.67711912143L. Kolman2.101151110122WSep 20 · 07:30L. Kolman1.73113514113D. Brichacek2.00911111252WSep 20 · 06:30L. Kolman1.50111196113T. Kanka2.5069111182
A. Pavlik10
WSep 25 · 15:15T. Kanka1.73111011982A. Pavlik2.00612711113LSep 25 · 14:45A. Pavlik2.10411791L. Kolman1.6711911113WSep 25 · 13:45A. Pavlik2.1011115113P. Provaznik1.67981141WSep 19 · 20:33T. Hucko1.447950A. Pavlik2.631111113LSep 19 · 19:30A. Pavlik2.206990T. Hucko1.611111113LSep 19 · 18:30A. Pavlik2.1091112472L. Kolman1.671191011113WSep 19 · 17:30A. Pavlik2.3871111113M. Svitac1.53116891LSep 11 · 16:34V. Lopata1.80115119113A. Pavlik1.9171191192LSep 11 · 15:30A. Pavlik2.00104100O. Horak1.731211123LSep 11 · 14:30A. Pavlik1.83137110P. Hala1.831511133
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