TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Leon Kolman
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1179111311111911
Miroslav Hajek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Miroslav Hajek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 1-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 94 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Leon Kolman at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 13–11 Miroslav Hajek Miroslav Hajek has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Kolman beat Hajek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:36What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kolman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-11 in 24
Kolman
Wrong
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolman 1622 vs Hajek 1650
Hajek
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolman 80% vs Hajek 60%
Kolman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolman 70% vs Hajek 50%
Kolman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolman +3 · Hajek -1
Kolman
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 1.73 / Hajek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kolman)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13165674
Kolman1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 101 of 171
Up 2–0, closes it88% 45 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it70% 79 of 113
Hajek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 40 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back28% 13 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolman6wins
AwayHajek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman100%5 of 5
AwayHajek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman5Hajek5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolman7Hajek3n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S3Kolman6Hajek3n = 9Kolman took 6 of 9
S4Kolman3Hajek5n = 8Hajek took 5 of 8
S5Kolman2Hajek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolmanHajekK − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.941.7+0.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime367 / 698 vs 362 / 67552.6%53.6%367 / 698 vs 362 / 675Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.739.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanKolman 1.73/Hajek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hajek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 20 · 16:00L. Kolman351111133M. Hajek2696110
LSep 18 · 16:51L. Kolman34611891M. Hajek3811511113
WSep 18 · 15:45L. Kolman485111110113M. Hajek4211751272
WSep 10 · 11:45L. Kolman4416611113M. Hajek411411881
WSep 6 · 20:53L. Kolman4211119113M. Hajek34881171
LAug 30 · 20:00L. Kolman501212111142M. Hajek551410713113
WAug 26 · 20:44L. Kolman521181110123M. Hajek48711812102
LAug 26 · 19:45L. Kolman31911651M. Hajek3911611113
LAug 18 · 08:14L. Kolman4187121132M. Hajek521111109113
L. Kolman10
WSep 20 · 16:00M. Hajek1.8396110L. Kolman1.831111133WSep 20 · 15:00P. Hala1.83118811132L. Kolman1.83511117153WSep 20 · 13:30L. Provaznik1.73511711102L. Kolman2.00117119123LSep 20 · 09:03P. Orlowski1.67711912143L. Kolman2.101151110122WSep 20 · 07:30L. Kolman1.73113514113D. Brichacek2.00911111252WSep 20 · 06:30L. Kolman1.50111196113T. Kanka2.5069111182LSep 20 · 05:30L. Kolman1.91413691P. Orlowski1.80111111113WSep 19 · 21:04M. Svitac1.67911110L. Kolman2.101113133LSep 19 · 20:00L. Kolman2.20710111242M. Svitac1.611112410113WSep 19 · 18:30A. Pavlik2.1091112472L. Kolman1.671191011113
M. Hajek10
LSep 20 · 16:00M. Hajek1.8396110L. Kolman1.831111133WSep 20 · 14:30L. Provaznik2.3841111662M. Hajek1.53119411113WSep 20 · 14:00P. Hala2.2011980M. Hajek1.61131193WSep 18 · 16:51L. Kolman2.50611891M. Hajek1.5011511113LSep 18 · 15:45M. Hajek1.9111751272L. Kolman1.805111110113LSep 18 · 14:15D. Marasek1.731111109113M. Hajek2.0076121172WSep 18 · 13:45P. Semrad1.6711117982M. Hajek2.10971111113WSep 17 · 20:17M. Hajek1.53118711113P. Oplt2.3871111892LSep 17 · 19:45M. Hajek1.735970P. Orlowski2.001111113LSep 17 · 18:15D. Brichacek1.7311116113M. Hajek2.00781191
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