TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Lukas Provaznik
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411119114611611
Miroslav Hajek
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:57 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Hajek to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Provaznik above · Miroslav Hajek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 84 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Miroslav Hajek at 62.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Provaznik 13–29 Miroslav Hajek Lukas Provaznik has won 13 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:57What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Hajek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-29 in 42
Hajek
Correct
gap of 16 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1582 vs Hajek 1649
Hajek
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 60% vs Hajek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 50% vs Hajek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik -1 · Hajek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Hajek) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Provaznik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 2.38 / Hajek 1.53
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Hajek)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13161862
Provaznik2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 52 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back29% 18 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Hajek1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 64 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it76% 50 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProvaznik4wins
AwayHajek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHajek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik66.7%2 of 3
AwayHajek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik3Hajek7n = 10Hajek took 7 of 10
S2Provaznik4Hajek6n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10
S3Provaznik6Hajek4n = 10Provaznik took 6 of 10
S4Provaznik3Hajek5n = 8Hajek took 5 of 8
S5Provaznik3Hajek2n = 5Provaznik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricProvaznikHajekP − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.140.8−2.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 306 vs 360 / 67248.7%53.6%149 / 306 vs 360 / 672Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.239.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HajekProvaznik 2.38/Hajek 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.8%
Hajek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hajek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 16:43L. Provaznik45911113113M. Hajek4311781162
LAug 12 · 15:45L. Provaznik30117751M. Hajek3741111113
WMay 20 · 16:18L. Provaznik341111123M. Hajek2596100
LMay 20 · 13:45L. Provaznik42411111062M. Hajek47116712113
LMay 7 · 08:43L. Provaznik2210930M. Hajek341211113
LMay 7 · 05:45L. Provaznik379711101M. Hajek4311119123
LMay 6 · 10:00L. Provaznik355101191M. Hajek4211128113
LMay 3 · 13:45L. Provaznik4239111182M. Hajek49111188113
WApr 26 · 12:24L. Provaznik45511711113M. Hajek4211811482
WApr 26 · 11:15L. Provaznik491110611113M. Hajek4691211772
L. Provaznik10
LSep 20 · 13:30L. Provaznik1.73511711102L. Kolman2.00117119123WSep 16 · 21:08L. Kolman1.8351181382L. Provaznik1.831161111113WSep 16 · 19:30L. Provaznik1.731111143V. Honemann2.0098120WSep 16 · 18:30L. Provaznik2.251111113P. Hala1.574990LSep 16 · 17:30L. Provaznik1.619811101L. Kolman2.2011114123LSep 13 · 09:03P. Hala1.5311812113L. Provaznik2.389111081WSep 13 · 07:30L. Provaznik1.401115113R. Merkl2.7541380LSep 13 · 06:30L. Provaznik2.009850P. Hala1.731111113WSep 13 · 05:30L. Provaznik1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00114991LSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113
M. Hajek10
WSep 20 · 14:00P. Hala2.2011980M. Hajek1.61131193WSep 18 · 16:51L. Kolman2.50611891M. Hajek1.5011511113LSep 18 · 15:45M. Hajek1.9111751272L. Kolman1.805111110113LSep 18 · 14:15D. Marasek1.731111109113M. Hajek2.0076121172WSep 18 · 13:45P. Semrad1.6711117982M. Hajek2.10971111113WSep 17 · 20:17M. Hajek1.53118711113P. Oplt2.3871111892LSep 17 · 19:45M. Hajek1.735970P. Orlowski2.001111113LSep 17 · 18:15D. Brichacek1.7311116113M. Hajek2.00781191WSep 17 · 17:45P. Oplt1.5310770M. Hajek2.381211113LSep 15 · 16:49D. Marasek1.831211113M. Hajek1.8310790
Upcoming Matches
L. Provaznik
Nothing scheduled
M. Hajek
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