TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Lukas Provaznik
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111177111191012
Leon Kolman
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:27 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Provaznik to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Provaznik above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 94 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Lukas Provaznik at 55.7%
94 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Provaznik 7–3 Leon Kolman Leon Kolman has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Provaznik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Provaznik
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1604 vs Kolman 1573
Provaznik
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 60% vs Kolman 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 60% vs Kolman 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik +3 · Kolman -1
Provaznik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Provaznik) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 1.73 / Kolman 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Provaznik)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13161967
Provaznik1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 16)
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 36 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it80% 28 of 35
Kolman2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 64 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back21% 15 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProvaznik7wins
AwayKolman3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderProvaznik leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik80%4 of 5
AwayKolman40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik5Kolman5n = 10split evenly
S2Provaznik7Kolman3n = 10Provaznik took 7 of 10
S3Provaznik5Kolman5n = 10split evenly
S4Provaznik4Kolman6n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S5Provaznik4Kolman1n = 5Provaznik took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricProvaznikKolmanP − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.939.3+4.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 314 vs 364 / 69549%52.4%154 / 314 vs 364 / 695Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.240.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProvaznikProvaznik 1.73/Kolman 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Provaznik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 21:08L. Provaznik501161111113L. Kolman4551181382
LSep 16 · 17:30L. Provaznik389811101L. Kolman3811114123
WSep 13 · 05:30L. Provaznik4181111113L. Kolman33114991
LSep 2 · 14:45L. Provaznik29511851L. Kolman3411111113
WAug 31 · 14:00L. Provaznik47121158113L. Kolman40102111162
LJul 25 · 05:15L. Provaznik541311910112L. Kolman541171112133
WJul 1 · 15:45L. Provaznik531111911113L. Kolman3913411742
WApr 6 · 18:30L. Provaznik48136117113L. Kolman43111161142
WFeb 6 · 20:45L. Provaznik3911113143L. Kolman397911121
WJan 31 · 16:45L. Provaznik4071111113L. Kolman28116831
L. Provaznik10
LSep 20 · 14:30L. Provaznik2.3841111662M. Hajek1.53119411113WSep 16 · 21:08L. Kolman1.8351181382L. Provaznik1.831161111113WSep 16 · 19:30L. Provaznik1.731111143V. Honemann2.0098120WSep 16 · 18:30L. Provaznik2.251111113P. Hala1.574990LSep 16 · 17:30L. Provaznik1.619811101L. Kolman2.2011114123LSep 13 · 09:03P. Hala1.5311812113L. Provaznik2.389111081WSep 13 · 07:30L. Provaznik1.401115113R. Merkl2.7541380LSep 13 · 06:30L. Provaznik2.009850P. Hala1.731111113WSep 13 · 05:30L. Provaznik1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00114991LSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113
L. Kolman10
LSep 20 · 09:03P. Orlowski1.67711912143L. Kolman2.101151110122WSep 20 · 07:30L. Kolman1.73113514113D. Brichacek2.00911111252WSep 20 · 06:30L. Kolman1.50111196113T. Kanka2.5069111182LSep 20 · 05:30L. Kolman1.91413691P. Orlowski1.80111111113WSep 19 · 21:04M. Svitac1.67911110L. Kolman2.101113133LSep 19 · 20:00L. Kolman2.20710111242M. Svitac1.611112410113WSep 19 · 18:30A. Pavlik2.1091112472L. Kolman1.671191011113LSep 16 · 21:08L. Kolman1.8351181382L. Provaznik1.831161111113WSep 16 · 17:30L. Provaznik1.619811101L. Kolman2.2011114123LSep 13 · 05:30L. Provaznik1.7381111113L. Kolman2.00114991
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