TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
David Brichacek vs Roman Merkl 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611116114211113
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Brichacek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Brichacek above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 76 set 5, 11-3 — our read held David Brichacek at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H David Brichacek 8–10 Roman Merkl David Brichacek has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:45What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Merkl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-10 in 18
Merkl
Wrong
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brichacek 1686 vs Merkl 1465
Brichacek
Correct
both rated, 221 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brichacek 40% vs Merkl 0%
Brichacek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brichacek 40% vs Merkl 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brichacek +1 · Merkl -7
Merkl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Brichacek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrichacek 1.91 / Merkl 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Brichacek)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13197657
Brichacek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 52 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back40% 23 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 26
Merkl1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 52 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it72% 34 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrichacek4wins
AwayMerkl6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMerkl leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrichacek20%1 of 5
AwayMerkl40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brichacek5Merkl5n = 10split evenly
S2Brichacek3Merkl7n = 10Merkl took 7 of 10
S3Brichacek3Merkl7n = 10Merkl took 7 of 10
S4Brichacek2Merkl6n = 8Merkl took 6 of 8
S5Brichacek3Merkl1n = 4Brichacek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrichacekMerklB − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.142.0−5.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrichacekMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 339 vs 265 / 56054%47.3%183 / 339 vs 265 / 560Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrichacekBrichacek 1.91/Merkl 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Brichacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Brichacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 29 · 05:30D. Brichacek331112641R. Merkl3931411113
WAug 21 · 20:48D. Brichacek48111169113R. Merkl4388111152
WAug 21 · 17:15D. Brichacek495101211113R. Merkl45111210752
LAug 16 · 12:00D. Brichacek34117791R. Merkl4291111113
LAug 2 · 07:15D. Brichacek291111251R. Merkl4491311113
LJul 31 · 20:28D. Brichacek237880R. Merkl331111113
LJul 31 · 19:00D. Brichacek197930R. Merkl331111113
LJul 15 · 20:00D. Brichacek42143123102R. Merkl5612111011123
WJul 13 · 19:00D. Brichacek484121011113R. Merkl43111012732
D. Brichacek10
WSep 26 · 15:15J. Simek2.2599111192D. Brichacek1.57111187103WSep 26 · 13:45D. Brichacek1.9181161143L. Kolman1.8011611632LSep 23 · 21:03P. Hala1.9121212113D. Brichacek1.8011101061WSep 23 · 19:45D. Brichacek1.831211113P. Hala1.8310660LSep 23 · 18:15P. Orlowski2.1011511113D. Brichacek1.67811771LSep 23 · 17:45J. Jnr2.00111197123D. Brichacek1.73861111102WSep 20 · 08:33T. Kanka1.73911851D. Brichacek2.0011611113LSep 20 · 07:30L. Kolman1.73113514113D. Brichacek2.00911111252LSep 20 · 07:00D. Brichacek1.57211841P. Orlowski2.2511511113LSep 20 · 06:00D. Brichacek1.6110880T. Kanka2.201211113
R. Merkl10
LSep 26 · 15:45L. Kolman1.61861114113R. Merkl2.20111171272LSep 26 · 13:15J. Simek1.50111183R. Merkl2.509950LSep 26 · 08:14R. Merkl1.8066111142M. Taranko1.91111178113LSep 26 · 07:45Z. Kuksa1.731111113R. Merkl2.008890LSep 26 · 06:45M. Taranko1.8011115113R. Merkl1.91481161LSep 26 · 05:15T. Kanka1.83561111113R. Merkl1.8311116782LSep 25 · 13:08M. Svitac1.5711118113R. Merkl2.25851141LSep 25 · 12:00R. Merkl2.251151011102M. Svitac1.57711124123WSep 25 · 10:30Z. Kuksa1.7311211872R. Merkl2.00711511113WSep 25 · 10:00L. Smazik1.53117691R. Merkl2.3861111113
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