TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
David Brichacek vs Leon Kolman 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81111661111643
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDavid Brichacek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Brichacek above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 4-3
Point 77 set 5, 4-3 — our read held David Brichacek at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H David Brichacek 6–7 Leon Kolman David Brichacek has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:07What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kolman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brichacek 1665 vs Kolman 1619
Brichacek
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brichacek 40% vs Kolman 60%
Kolman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brichacek 40% vs Kolman 70%
Kolman
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brichacek -1 · Kolman -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Brichacek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Brichacek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrichacek 1.91 / Kolman 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Brichacek)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13196363
Brichacek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 23)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 52 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back40% 23 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 26
Kolman1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite60% won 99 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it92% 45 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it71% 77 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrichacek3wins
AwayKolman7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrichacekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKolman66.7%6 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brichacek1Kolman9n = 10Kolman took 9 of 10
S2Brichacek7Kolman3n = 10Brichacek took 7 of 10
S3Brichacek4Kolman6n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S4Brichacek5Kolman4n = 9Brichacek took 5 of 9
S5Brichacek1Kolman2n = 3Kolman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrichacekKolmanB − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match38.440.1−1.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrichacekKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 338 vs 366 / 69553.9%52.7%182 / 338 vs 366 / 695Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.440.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrichacekBrichacek 1.91/Kolman 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Brichacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Brichacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 20 · 07:30D. Brichacek48911111252L. Kolman44113514113
WAug 30 · 17:30D. Brichacek51711711153L. Kolman50116119132
WAug 21 · 19:45D. Brichacek49131111143L. Kolman411577121
LAug 15 · 19:45D. Brichacek333111091L. Kolman3811412113
LJul 25 · 07:45D. Brichacek207760L. Kolman331111113
LJul 12 · 17:30D. Brichacek28611291L. Kolman3511211113
LJul 7 · 08:00D. Brichacek4175111172L. Kolman47111186113
LJun 27 · 19:00D. Brichacek379111071L. Kolman4311912113
WApr 6 · 17:30D. Brichacek3961111113L. Kolman30119281
D. Brichacek10
WSep 26 · 15:15J. Simek2.2599111192D. Brichacek1.57111187103WSep 26 · 14:45D. Brichacek1.91611112113R. Merkl1.8011641132LSep 23 · 21:03P. Hala1.9121212113D. Brichacek1.8011101061WSep 23 · 19:45D. Brichacek1.831211113P. Hala1.8310660LSep 23 · 18:15P. Orlowski2.1011511113D. Brichacek1.67811771LSep 23 · 17:45J. Jnr2.00111197123D. Brichacek1.73861111102WSep 20 · 08:33T. Kanka1.73911851D. Brichacek2.0011611113LSep 20 · 07:30L. Kolman1.73113514113D. Brichacek2.00911111252LSep 20 · 07:00D. Brichacek1.57211841P. Orlowski2.2511511113LSep 20 · 06:00D. Brichacek1.6110880T. Kanka2.201211113
L. Kolman10
WSep 26 · 15:45L. Kolman1.61861114113R. Merkl2.20111171272LSep 26 · 14:15J. Simek1.911212910103L. Kolman1.801010111292LSep 25 · 16:45L. Kolman1.57119641A. Pavlik2.2591111113WSep 25 · 15:45P. Provaznik2.206780L. Kolman1.611111113WSep 25 · 14:45A. Pavlik2.10411791L. Kolman1.6711911113WSep 25 · 13:15T. Kanka2.38116891L. Kolman1.5391111113LSep 20 · 17:00L. Kolman1.7311913192M. Hajek2.007111111113WSep 20 · 16:00M. Hajek1.8396110L. Kolman1.831111133WSep 20 · 15:00P. Hala1.83118811132L. Kolman1.83511117153WSep 20 · 07:30L. Kolman1.73113514113D. Brichacek2.00911111252
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