TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Merkl vs Leon Kolman 2-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
Final
2 – 0
Set by set
1161191010––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-10
Point 57 set 3, 10-10
57 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 11–18 Leon Kolman Roman Merkl has won 11 of their 29 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Kolman beat Merkl 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Merkl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (0%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 1.57 / Kolman 2.25
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Merkl)-4.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13201340
Merkl1.57
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 9
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 52 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it72% 34 of 47
Kolman2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 65 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back21% 15 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerkl2wins
AwayKolman8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkl20%1 of 5
AwayKolman80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl5Kolman5n = 10split evenly
S2Merkl5Kolman5n = 10split evenly
S3Merkl3Kolman7n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S4Merkl2Kolman7n = 9Kolman took 7 of 9
S5Merkl2Kolman4n = 6Kolman took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerklKolmanM − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.345.4−4.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 562 vs 364 / 69447.2%52.5%265 / 562 vs 364 / 694Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.640.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MerklMerkl 1.57/Kolman 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Merkl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–0
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 26 · 15:45R. Merkl48111171272L. Kolman50861114113
LSep 13 · 08:35R. Merkl33114991L. Kolman3851111113
WSep 13 · 07:00R. Merkl48117118113L. Kolman4341191182
LAug 30 · 08:00R. Merkl33614671L. Kolman45111211113
LAug 22 · 08:00R. Merkl521111101192L. Kolman53138129113
WAug 21 · 18:15R. Merkl50912117113L. Kolman43111041172
LJul 27 · 14:15R. Merkl209380L. Kolman331111113
LJul 6 · 17:15R. Merkl4111114782L. Kolman47861111113
LJun 27 · 20:00R. Merkl481041211112L. Kolman551211109133
LJun 19 · 07:45R. Merkl4012111161L. Kolman47101313113
R. Merkl10
LSep 26 · 15:45L. Kolman1.61861114113R. Merkl2.20111171272LSep 26 · 14:45D. Brichacek1.91611112113R. Merkl1.8011641132LSep 26 · 13:15J. Simek1.50111183R. Merkl2.509950LSep 26 · 08:14R. Merkl1.8066111142M. Taranko1.91111178113LSep 26 · 07:45Z. Kuksa1.731111113R. Merkl2.008890LSep 26 · 06:45M. Taranko1.8011115113R. Merkl1.91481161LSep 26 · 05:15T. Kanka1.83561111113R. Merkl1.8311116782LSep 25 · 13:08M. Svitac1.5711118113R. Merkl2.25851141LSep 25 · 12:00R. Merkl2.251151011102M. Svitac1.57711124123WSep 25 · 10:30Z. Kuksa1.7311211872R. Merkl2.00711511113
L. Kolman10
WSep 26 · 15:45L. Kolman1.61861114113R. Merkl2.20111171272LSep 26 · 14:15J. Simek1.911212910103L. Kolman1.801010111292LSep 26 · 13:45D. Brichacek1.9181161143L. Kolman1.8011611632LSep 25 · 16:45L. Kolman1.57119641A. Pavlik2.2591111113WSep 25 · 15:45P. Provaznik2.206780L. Kolman1.611111113WSep 25 · 14:45A. Pavlik2.10411791L. Kolman1.6711911113WSep 25 · 13:15T. Kanka2.38116891L. Kolman1.5391111113LSep 20 · 17:00L. Kolman1.7311913192M. Hajek2.007111111113WSep 20 · 16:00M. Hajek1.8396110L. Kolman1.831111133WSep 20 · 15:00P. Hala1.83118811132L. Kolman1.83511117153
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