TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Adam Pavlik vs Leon Kolman 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114119811117––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:06 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Pavlik above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 72 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Leon Kolman at 57.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Adam Pavlik 11–17 Leon Kolman Adam Pavlik has won 11 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:06What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kolman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-17 in 28
Kolman
Wrong
gap of 6 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavlik 1590 vs Kolman 1585
Pavlik
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavlik 80% vs Kolman 40%
Pavlik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavlik 50% vs Kolman 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavlik +2 · Kolman +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kolman) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavlik 2.10 / Kolman 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Kolman)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13201871
Pavlik2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 25)
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog51% won 37 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back30% 12 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Kolman1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 99 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it92% 44 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it70% 76 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavlik2wins
AwayKolman8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavlik25%1 of 4
AwayKolman83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavlik4Kolman6n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S2Pavlik5Kolman5n = 10split evenly
S3Pavlik3Kolman7n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S4Pavlik2Kolman6n = 8Kolman took 6 of 8
S5Pavlik1Kolman3n = 4Kolman took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavlikKolmanP − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.042.4−4.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavlikKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 320 vs 362 / 69451.6%52.2%165 / 320 vs 362 / 694Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.540.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanPavlik 2.10/Kolman 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pavlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 25 · 16:45A. Pavlik4291111113L. Kolman30119641
LSep 25 · 14:45A. Pavlik31411791L. Kolman4211911113
LSep 19 · 18:30A. Pavlik4391112472L. Kolman521191011113
LSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik49131181072L. Kolman541191112113
LAug 30 · 07:00A. Pavlik43101111742L. Kolman46129311113
WAug 15 · 12:20A. Pavlik51119911113L. Kolman4591111682
LAug 15 · 09:15A. Pavlik35118971L. Kolman4181111113
LJun 24 · 13:45A. Pavlik42178891L. Kolman48151111113
LMay 26 · 14:30A. Pavlik249780L. Kolman331111113
LMay 9 · 08:24A. Pavlik205960L. Kolman331111113
A. Pavlik10
LSep 27 · 19:30F. Kubos2.2512611123A. Pavlik1.5710118101LSep 27 · 19:00A. Pavlik1.8014991392R. Merkl1.9112111111113WSep 25 · 16:45L. Kolman1.57119641A. Pavlik2.2591111113WSep 25 · 15:15T. Kanka1.73111011982A. Pavlik2.00612711113LSep 25 · 14:45A. Pavlik2.10411791L. Kolman1.6711911113WSep 25 · 13:45A. Pavlik2.1011115113P. Provaznik1.67981141WSep 19 · 20:33T. Hucko1.447950A. Pavlik2.631111113LSep 19 · 19:30A. Pavlik2.206990T. Hucko1.611111113LSep 19 · 18:30A. Pavlik2.1091112472L. Kolman1.671191011113WSep 19 · 17:30A. Pavlik2.3871111113M. Svitac1.53116891
L. Kolman10
WSep 27 · 18:30F. Kubos2.75741171L. Kolman1.4011115113WSep 27 · 08:28L. Kolman2.201711712113P. Orlowski1.611513111072LSep 27 · 08:00L. Kolman1.9187100L. Provaznik1.801111123LSep 27 · 06:30P. Orlowski1.7311911113L. Kolman2.00811661LSep 27 · 06:00M. Hajek1.9191111113L. Kolman1.80118771LSep 26 · 16:55R. Merkl1.571111102L. Kolman2.2569100WSep 26 · 15:45L. Kolman1.61861114113R. Merkl2.20111171272LSep 25 · 16:45L. Kolman1.57119641A. Pavlik2.2591111113WSep 25 · 14:45A. Pavlik2.10411791L. Kolman1.6711911113WSep 19 · 18:30A. Pavlik2.1091112472L. Kolman1.671191011113
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