TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Leon Kolman vs Petr Orlowski 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
171511137111210117
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Petr Orlowski below
Set 1 · 17-15
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 114 set 5, 11-7
114 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 6–11 Petr Orlowski Leon Kolman has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Orlowski beat Kolman 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Orlowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 2.20 / Orlowski 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Orlowski)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13205472
Kolman2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 64 of 149
Down 0–1, comes back21% 15 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 33
Orlowski1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 59 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it79% 44 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolman4wins
AwayOrlowski6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderOrlowski leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman66.7%4 of 6
AwayOrlowski100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman6Orlowski4n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S2Kolman5Orlowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolman4Orlowski6n = 10Orlowski took 6 of 10
S4Kolman1Orlowski8n = 9Orlowski took 8 of 9
S5Kolman3Orlowski2n = 5Kolman took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolmanOrlowskiK − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.943.4−5.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanOrlowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime362 / 694 vs 195 / 35952.2%54.3%362 / 694 vs 195 / 359Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.640.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OrlowskiKolman 2.20/Orlowski 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.3%
Orlowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 06:30L. Kolman31811661P. Orlowski4211911113
LSep 20 · 09:03L. Kolman491151110122P. Orlowski53711912143
LSep 20 · 05:30L. Kolman32413691P. Orlowski44111111113
WAug 22 · 05:30L. Kolman4011711113P. Orlowski33411991
WJul 19 · 15:30L. Kolman52118146133P. Orlowski538111211112
LJun 13 · 05:15L. Kolman3711116452P. Orlowski48691111113
LApr 11 · 19:15L. Kolman26341181P. Orlowski3811115113
WApr 7 · 18:00L. Kolman45121165113P. Orlowski47107111182
WApr 3 · 08:48L. Kolman45111139113P. Orlowski4178111142
LApr 3 · 05:45L. Kolman2251160P. Orlowski351113113
L. Kolman10
LSep 27 · 08:00L. Kolman1.9187100L. Provaznik1.801111123LSep 27 · 06:30P. Orlowski1.7311911113L. Kolman2.00811661LSep 27 · 06:00M. Hajek1.9191111113L. Kolman1.80118771LSep 26 · 16:55R. Merkl1.571111102L. Kolman2.2569100WSep 26 · 15:45L. Kolman1.61861114113R. Merkl2.20111171272LSep 26 · 14:15J. Simek1.911212910103L. Kolman1.801010111292LSep 26 · 13:45D. Brichacek1.9181161143L. Kolman1.8011611632LSep 25 · 16:45L. Kolman1.57119641A. Pavlik2.2591111113WSep 25 · 15:45P. Provaznik2.206780L. Kolman1.611111113WSep 25 · 14:45A. Pavlik2.10411791L. Kolman1.6711911113
P. Orlowski10
LSep 27 · 07:30P. Orlowski1.738450M. Hajek2.001111113WSep 27 · 06:30P. Orlowski1.7311911113L. Kolman2.00811661LSep 27 · 05:30P. Orlowski1.53491191L. Provaznik2.3811113113WSep 23 · 20:33J. Jnr1.739111111102P. Orlowski2.00119139123WSep 23 · 19:15P. Orlowski1.8011118113J. Jnr1.91971141WSep 23 · 18:15P. Orlowski2.1011511113D. Brichacek1.67811771LSep 23 · 17:15P. Orlowski1.9113811962P. Hala1.801111711113WSep 20 · 09:03P. Orlowski1.67711912143L. Kolman2.101151110122WSep 20 · 08:00T. Kanka2.2048110P. Orlowski1.611111133WSep 20 · 07:00D. Brichacek1.57211841P. Orlowski2.2511511113
Upcoming Matches
L. Kolman
P. Orlowski
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