TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Petr Orlowski vs Pavel Hala 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Petr Orlowski
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1311811117911611
Pavel Hala
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Orlowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Orlowski above · Pavel Hala below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 98 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Petr Orlowski at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Petr Orlowski 11–19 Pavel Hala Petr Orlowski has won 11 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:18What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hala
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-19 in 30
Hala
Correct
gap of 8 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Orlowski 1703 vs Hala 1581
Orlowski
Wrong
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Orlowski 80% vs Hala 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Orlowski 70% vs Hala 50%
Orlowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Orlowski +4 · Hala +1
Orlowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Orlowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hala form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOrlowski 1.91 / Hala 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Orlowski)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13180315
Orlowski1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 20)
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog54% won 40 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back34% 13 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back16% 3 of 19
Hala1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 21)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 71 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it91% 38 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it64% 58 of 90
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOrlowski4wins
AwayHala6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHala leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOrlowski75%3 of 4
AwayHala83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Orlowski4Hala6n = 10Hala took 6 of 10
S2Orlowski5Hala5n = 10split evenly
S3Orlowski3Hala7n = 10Hala took 7 of 10
S4Orlowski4Hala4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOrlowskiHalaO − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.440.1−2.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOrlowskiHalaBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 360 vs 311 / 61753.9%50.4%194 / 360 vs 311 / 617Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OrlowskiOrlowski 1.91/Hala 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Orlowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 06:00P. Orlowski50131110163P. Hala4411712141
WSep 4 · 19:00P. Orlowski45119211123P. Hala48811118102
WAug 23 · 08:18P. Orlowski4311911123P. Hala335117101
LAug 23 · 07:15P. Orlowski341111661P. Hala4413911113
LMay 25 · 18:15P. Orlowski31913721P. Hala44111111113
WApr 19 · 06:30P. Orlowski4381111133P. Hala331156111
LMar 1 · 17:22P. Orlowski35711981P. Hala3911611113
LMar 1 · 15:15P. Orlowski2891090P. Hala341112113
LJan 22 · 22:10P. Orlowski247890P. Hala331111113
LJan 22 · 21:00P. Orlowski4111611852P. Hala49711911113
P. Orlowski10
WSep 20 · 09:03P. Orlowski1.67711912143L. Kolman2.101151110122WSep 20 · 08:00T. Kanka2.2048110P. Orlowski1.611111133WSep 20 · 07:00D. Brichacek1.57211841P. Orlowski2.2511511113WSep 20 · 05:30L. Kolman1.91413691P. Orlowski1.80111111113LSep 19 · 09:09D. Brichacek1.671111113P. Orlowski2.109880WSep 19 · 07:30L. Stoces1.805470P. Orlowski1.911111113WSep 19 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.1011115113D. Brichacek1.67451181LSep 19 · 06:00P. Orlowski1.911091214152J. Jnr1.8012111012173LSep 17 · 20:44P. Orlowski1.919960D. Brichacek1.801111113WSep 17 · 19:45M. Hajek1.735970P. Orlowski2.001111113
P. Hala10
WSep 21 · 16:48V. Lopata1.5341161172P. Hala2.38117119113LSep 21 · 15:45P. Hala2.20119761V. Lopata1.6191111113WSep 21 · 14:15R. Merkl2.10111410452P. Hala1.675121211113WSep 21 · 13:45O. Horak1.91112861P. Hala1.8071111113WSep 20 · 16:29P. Hala1.8011211113L. Provaznik1.91711661LSep 20 · 15:30L. Provaznik1.9131115113P. Hala1.801141361LSep 20 · 15:00P. Hala1.83118811132L. Kolman1.83511117153LSep 20 · 14:00P. Hala2.2011980M. Hajek1.61131193LSep 17 · 16:54P. Hala2.00118791V. Lopata1.7351111113WSep 17 · 15:45V. Lopata1.6111371172P. Hala2.20611119113
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