TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Pavel Hala
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117211116116––
Lukas Provaznik
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingPavel Hala above · Lukas Provaznik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 65 set 4, 11-6
65 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Hala 16–10 Lukas Provaznik Lukas Provaznik has won 10 of their 26 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Provaznik beat Hala 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hala)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hala form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHala 1.80 / Provaznik 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hala)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13165685
Hala1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 68 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it91% 38 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it65% 57 of 88
Provaznik1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 52 of 116
Down 0–1, comes back29% 18 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHala7wins
AwayProvaznik3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHala leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHala71.4%5 of 7
AwayProvaznik33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hala7Provaznik3n = 10Hala took 7 of 10
S2Hala5Provaznik5n = 10split evenly
S3Hala6Provaznik4n = 10Hala took 6 of 10
S4Hala4Provaznik3n = 7Hala took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHalaProvaznikH − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.035.4+2.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHalaProvaznikBasisWin rate · lifetime307 / 612 vs 150 / 30850.2%48.7%307 / 612 vs 150 / 308Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.840.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HalaHala 1.80/Provaznik 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Hala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 20 · 15:30P. Hala341141361L. Provaznik4031115113
LSep 16 · 18:30P. Hala224990L. Provaznik331111113
WSep 13 · 09:03P. Hala4211812113L. Provaznik389111081
WSep 13 · 06:30P. Hala331111113L. Provaznik229850
WSep 2 · 13:45P. Hala4111811113L. Provaznik35711891
LApr 24 · 20:13P. Hala4511911682L. Provaznik49711911113
WApr 24 · 17:45P. Hala4011117113L. Provaznik31681161
WJan 12 · 18:15P. Hala341111123L. Provaznik2578100
WAug 31 · 14:15P. Hala511012117113L. Provaznik46121041192
P. Hala10
LSep 20 · 15:30L. Provaznik1.9131115113P. Hala1.801141361LSep 20 · 15:00P. Hala1.83118811132L. Kolman1.83511117153LSep 20 · 14:00P. Hala2.2011980M. Hajek1.61131193LSep 17 · 16:54P. Hala2.00118791V. Lopata1.7351111113WSep 17 · 15:45V. Lopata1.6111371172P. Hala2.20611119113LSep 17 · 14:45R. Merkl2.20761111153P. Hala1.61111198132LSep 17 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.50111159153P. Hala1.50881111132LSep 16 · 20:39P. Hala1.80116811132V. Honemann1.91411116153WSep 16 · 20:00P. Hala1.8021611143L. Kolman1.9119118121LSep 16 · 18:30L. Provaznik2.251111113P. Hala1.574990
L. Provaznik10
WSep 20 · 15:30L. Provaznik1.9131115113P. Hala1.801141361LSep 20 · 14:30L. Provaznik2.3841111662M. Hajek1.53119411113LSep 20 · 13:30L. Provaznik1.73511711102L. Kolman2.00117119123WSep 16 · 21:08L. Kolman1.8351181382L. Provaznik1.831161111113WSep 16 · 19:30L. Provaznik1.731111143V. Honemann2.0098120WSep 16 · 18:30L. Provaznik2.251111113P. Hala1.574990LSep 16 · 17:30L. Provaznik1.619811101L. Kolman2.2011114123LSep 13 · 09:03P. Hala1.5311812113L. Provaznik2.389111081WSep 13 · 07:30L. Provaznik1.401115113R. Merkl2.7541380LSep 13 · 06:30L. Provaznik2.009850P. Hala1.731111113
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