TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Filip Kubos vs Adam Pavlik 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12106111181210––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:26 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeAdam Pavlik to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Kubos above · Adam Pavlik below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 80 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Adam Pavlik at 60.1%
80 points played in total.
H2H Filip Kubos 2–4 Adam Pavlik Filip Kubos has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:26What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Pavlik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Pavlik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubos 1518 vs Pavlik 1601
Pavlik
Wrong
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubos 20% vs Pavlik 80%
Pavlik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubos 30% vs Pavlik 60%
Pavlik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubos -1 · Pavlik +3
Pavlik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Pavlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavlik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubos 2.25 / Pavlik 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Pavlik)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13203822
Kubos2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 74 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back26% 25 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 54
Pavlik1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 32 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it83% 24 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKubos2wins
AwayPavlik4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderPavlik leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubos66.7%2 of 3
AwayPavlik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubos3Pavlik3n = 6split evenly
S2Kubos2Pavlik4n = 6Pavlik took 4 of 6
S3Kubos2Pavlik4n = 6Pavlik took 4 of 6
S4Kubos3Pavlik3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKubosPavlikK − PBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match34.541.3−6.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubosPavlikBasisWin rate · lifetime356 / 704 vs 163 / 31750.6%51.4%356 / 704 vs 163 / 317Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavlikKubos 2.25/Pavlik 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Pavlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kubos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WJun 24 · 16:49F. Kubos40114311113A. Pavlik4691111782
WJun 24 · 15:45F. Kubos4011711113A. Pavlik36811981
LJun 6 · 20:00F. Kubos4231271192A. Pavlik511110118113
LMay 12 · 18:15F. Kubos31811751A. Pavlik4011711113
LApr 25 · 05:45F. Kubos30681151A. Pavlik3711114113
LApr 13 · 19:15F. Kubos24113461A. Pavlik3851111113
F. Kubos10
LSep 27 · 18:30F. Kubos2.75741171L. Kolman1.4011115113WSep 27 · 17:30F. Kubos3.25711116113R. Merkl1.3311681182LSep 21 · 20:23F. Kubos1.80111180S. Kalensky1.911313113LSep 21 · 19:45F. Kubos2.2591111562V. Herrmann1.57117811113LSep 21 · 18:15S. Kalensky1.837111111113F. Kubos1.8311861382LSep 21 · 17:45L. Stoces1.2811111010113F. Kubos3.5095121272WSep 20 · 13:15F. Kubos2.001311113J. Juppa1.7311970LSep 20 · 12:00F. Kubos1.6713591172J. Snr2.101111114113WSep 20 · 10:30O. Chadima1.5731011111F. Kubos2.2511125133LSep 20 · 10:00J. Juppa1.61712118113F. Kubos2.20111041192
A. Pavlik10
LSep 27 · 19:00A. Pavlik1.8014991392R. Merkl1.9112111111113WSep 27 · 18:00A. Pavlik2.1011118113L. Kolman1.67491171WSep 25 · 16:45L. Kolman1.57119641A. Pavlik2.2591111113WSep 25 · 15:15T. Kanka1.73111011982A. Pavlik2.00612711113LSep 25 · 14:45A. Pavlik2.10411791L. Kolman1.6711911113WSep 25 · 13:45A. Pavlik2.1011115113P. Provaznik1.67981141WSep 19 · 20:33T. Hucko1.447950A. Pavlik2.631111113LSep 19 · 19:30A. Pavlik2.206990T. Hucko1.611111113LSep 19 · 18:30A. Pavlik2.1091112472L. Kolman1.671191011113WSep 19 · 17:30A. Pavlik2.3871111113M. Svitac1.53116891
Upcoming Matches
F. Kubos
A. Pavlik
Nothing scheduled
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