TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Filip Kubos
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911117118511611
Vit Herrmann
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:05 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeVit Herrmann to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Kubos above · Vit Herrmann below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 90 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Vit Herrmann at 60.1%
90 points played in total.
H2H Filip Kubos 2–4 Vit Herrmann Filip Kubos has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:05What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Herrmann
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Herrmann
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubos 1544 vs Herrmann 1566
Herrmann
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubos 40% vs Herrmann 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubos 50% vs Herrmann 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubos -2 · Herrmann -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Herrmann)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Herrmann form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubos 2.25 / Herrmann 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Herrmann)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13166807
Kubos2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog45% won 79 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 54
Herrmann1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 36 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it71% 27 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKubos2wins
AwayHerrmann4wins
4 of 6 to a deciderHerrmann leads 4–2, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubosn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHerrmann75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubos2Herrmann4n = 6Herrmann took 4 of 6
S2Kubos2Herrmann4n = 6Herrmann took 4 of 6
S3Kubos3Herrmann3n = 6split evenly
S4Kubos2Herrmann3n = 5Herrmann took 3 of 5
S5Kubos2Herrmann2n = 4split evenly
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricKubosHerrmannK − HBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match41.845.5−3.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubosHerrmannBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 712 vs 213 / 43551.3%49%365 / 712 vs 213 / 435Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HerrmannKubos 2.25/Herrmann 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Herrmann · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Herrmann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 8 · 10:00F. Kubos259880V. Herrmann331111113
LAug 2 · 15:30F. Kubos471011114112V. Herrmann50129511133
LJul 6 · 11:00F. Kubos28126551V. Herrmann43101111113
WJun 27 · 09:30F. Kubos511211611113V. Herrmann48101311862
LApr 6 · 11:15F. Kubos511010131172V. Herrmann521212116113
WMar 28 · 16:15F. Kubos49911116123V. Herrmann47117811102
F. Kubos10
LSep 21 · 20:23F. Kubos1.80111180S. Kalensky1.911313113LSep 21 · 18:15S. Kalensky1.837111111113F. Kubos1.8311861382LSep 21 · 17:45L. Stoces1.2811111010113F. Kubos3.5095121272WSep 20 · 13:15F. Kubos2.001311113J. Juppa1.7311970LSep 20 · 12:00F. Kubos1.6713591172J. Snr2.101111114113WSep 20 · 10:30O. Chadima1.5731011111F. Kubos2.2511125133LSep 20 · 10:00J. Juppa1.61712118113F. Kubos2.20111041192WSep 18 · 21:13F. Kubos1.9111511123L. Hendrych1.806118101WSep 18 · 20:00J. Botka2.3811181692F. Kubos1.531181114113LSep 18 · 19:00L. Hendrych1.53911119113F. Kubos2.3811581192
V. Herrmann10
LSep 21 · 18:45L. Stoces1.91121111113V. Herrmann1.80146891WSep 21 · 17:15S. Kalensky1.913660V. Herrmann1.801111113LSep 19 · 16:53J. Juppa1.57119124103V. Herrmann2.25511101162WSep 19 · 15:15V. Herrmann1.801113811113L. Stoces1.9161511982LSep 19 · 14:15V. Herrmann2.00511991J. Juppa1.7311911113WSep 19 · 13:15V. Herrmann2.00118511103V. Lopata1.7381111892LSep 12 · 16:46V. Lopata2.201112123V. Herrmann1.60610100WSep 12 · 15:15O. Chadima1.8312460V. Herrmann1.831411113WSep 12 · 14:45V. Herrmann1.83911511113V. Lopata1.8311311882WSep 12 · 13:45V. Herrmann1.9161113113L. Stoces1.801181171
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