TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Ludek Stoces
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1214116118119––
Vit Herrmann
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVit Herrmann to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLudek Stoces above · Vit Herrmann below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 82 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Vit Herrmann at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Stoces 1–2 Vit Herrmann Ludek Stoces has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:55What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Herrmann
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stoces 1523 vs Herrmann 1566
Herrmann
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stoces 40% vs Herrmann 60%
Herrmann
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stoces 50% vs Herrmann 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stoces +1 · Herrmann +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Herrmann)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stoces form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStoces 1.91 / Herrmann 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Herrmann)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13166776
Stoces1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 15 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back20% 6 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Herrmann1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 36 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it71% 27 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeStoces1wins
AwayHerrmann2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderHerrmann leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stoces1Herrmann2n = 3Herrmann took 2 of 3
S2Stoces2Herrmann1n = 3Stoces took 2 of 3
S3Stoces2Herrmann1n = 3Stoces took 2 of 3
S4Stoces1Herrmann2n = 3Herrmann took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricStocesHerrmannS − HBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match43.744.0−0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStocesHerrmannBasisWin rate · lifetime91 / 210 vs 213 / 43543.3%49%91 / 210 vs 213 / 435Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HerrmannStoces 1.91/Herrmann 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Herrmann · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stoces won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 21 · 18:45L. Stoces45121111113V. Herrmann37146891
LSep 19 · 15:15L. Stoces4961511982V. Herrmann541113811113
LSep 12 · 13:45L. Stoces371181171V. Herrmann4161113113
L. Stoces10
WSep 21 · 19:15S. Kalensky1.83711119102L. Stoces1.83118911123WSep 21 · 17:45L. Stoces1.2811111010113F. Kubos3.5095121272LSep 19 · 16:24V. Lopata1.831211133L. Stoces1.83107110LSep 19 · 15:15V. Herrmann1.801113811113L. Stoces1.9161511982WSep 19 · 14:45L. Stoces2.3811115143V. Lopata1.532811121LSep 19 · 13:45L. Stoces2.35101060J. Juppa1.52121283WSep 19 · 08:39J. Jnr2.00761191L. Stoces1.7311119113LSep 19 · 07:30L. Stoces1.805470P. Orlowski1.911111113WSep 19 · 06:30L. Stoces1.7314811113J. Jnr2.001211851LSep 19 · 05:30L. Stoces2.3812690D. Brichacek1.531411113
V. Herrmann10
WSep 21 · 17:15S. Kalensky1.913660V. Herrmann1.801111113LSep 19 · 16:53J. Juppa1.57119124103V. Herrmann2.25511101162WSep 19 · 15:15V. Herrmann1.801113811113L. Stoces1.9161511982LSep 19 · 14:15V. Herrmann2.00511991J. Juppa1.7311911113WSep 19 · 13:15V. Herrmann2.00118511103V. Lopata1.7381111892LSep 12 · 16:46V. Lopata2.201112123V. Herrmann1.60610100WSep 12 · 15:15O. Chadima1.8312460V. Herrmann1.831411113WSep 12 · 14:45V. Herrmann1.83911511113V. Lopata1.8311311882WSep 12 · 13:45V. Herrmann1.9161113113L. Stoces1.801181171LSep 11 · 20:38V. Herrmann1.5385111262J. Snr2.381111610113
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