TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Stepan Kalensky
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111181199111012
Ludek Stoces
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeStepan Kalensky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingStepan Kalensky above · Ludek Stoces below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 99 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Stepan Kalensky at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Kalensky 0–1 Ludek Stoces Stepan Kalensky has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:24What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Stoces
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kalensky 1492 vs Stoces 1533
Stoces
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kalensky 20% vs Stoces 60%
Stoces
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kalensky 30% vs Stoces 50%
Stoces
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kalensky +1 · Stoces +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stoces) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalensky form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKalensky 1.83 / Stoces 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stoces)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13166916
Kalensky1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Stoces1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKalensky0wins
AwayStoces1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderStoces leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKalenskyStocesK − SBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match48.051.0−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKalenskyStocesBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 512 vs 92 / 21154.1%43.6%277 / 512 vs 92 / 211Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StocesKalensky 1.83/Stoces 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stoces · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stoces won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 21 · 19:15S. Kalensky48711119102L. Stoces51118911123
S. Kalensky10
WSep 21 · 18:15S. Kalensky1.837111111113F. Kubos1.8311861382LSep 21 · 17:15S. Kalensky1.913660V. Herrmann1.801111113LSep 14 · 20:39J. Jnr1.361111143S. Kalensky3.0099120LSep 14 · 19:30S. Kalensky1.83611591R. Merkl1.8311811113LSep 14 · 18:30S. Kalensky2.6397110J. Jnr1.441111133LSep 14 · 17:30S. Kalensky2.631118151P. Rucky1.4481111173WSep 9 · 20:14S. Kalensky2.50711611113J. Gruber1.5011611942LSep 9 · 19:45J. Jnr1.611211113S. Kalensky2.2010680LSep 9 · 18:45P. Orlowski1.4491111113S. Kalensky2.63114691WSep 9 · 17:15J. Gruber1.40117741S. Kalensky2.7561111113
L. Stoces10
WSep 21 · 18:45L. Stoces1.91121111113V. Herrmann1.80146891WSep 21 · 17:45L. Stoces1.2811111010113F. Kubos3.5095121272LSep 19 · 16:24V. Lopata1.831211133L. Stoces1.83107110LSep 19 · 15:15V. Herrmann1.801113811113L. Stoces1.9161511982WSep 19 · 14:45L. Stoces2.3811115143V. Lopata1.532811121LSep 19 · 13:45L. Stoces2.35101060J. Juppa1.52121283WSep 19 · 08:39J. Jnr2.00761191L. Stoces1.7311119113LSep 19 · 07:30L. Stoces1.805470P. Orlowski1.911111113WSep 19 · 06:30L. Stoces1.7314811113J. Jnr2.001211851LSep 19 · 05:30L. Stoces2.3812690D. Brichacek1.531411113
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