TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Ludek Stoces
Home
1.29
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11911510121012117
Filip Kubos
Away
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:15 and never touched — 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timeLudek Stoces to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLudek Stoces above · Filip Kubos below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 98 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Ludek Stoces at 68.7%
98 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Stoces 3–0 Filip Kubos Filip Kubos has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:15What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Stoces
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Stoces
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stoces 1497 vs Kubos 1569
Kubos
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stoces 40% vs Kubos 60%
Kubos
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stoces 40% vs Kubos 60%
Kubos
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stoces -2 · Kubos +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Stoces)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubos form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStoces 1.28 / Kubos 3.50
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Stoces)-4.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13166885
Stoces1.28
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 19)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 16 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it53% 9 of 17
Kubos3.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 20)
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog45% won 79 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeStoces3wins
AwayKubos0wins
Stoces leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stoces2Kubos1n = 3Stoces took 2 of 3
S2Stoces2Kubos1n = 3Stoces took 2 of 3
S3Stoces3Kubos0n = 3Stoces took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricStocesKubosS − KBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match38.725.0+13.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStocesKubosBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 208 vs 365 / 71042.8%51.4%89 / 208 vs 365 / 710Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StocesStoces 1.28/Kubos 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.7%
Stoces · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stoces won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJul 6 · 20:00L. Stoces4181111113F. Kubos33119851
WJul 4 · 12:00L. Stoces4211811123F. Kubos308111101
WJul 3 · 15:15L. Stoces331111113F. Kubos123810
L. Stoces10
LSep 19 · 16:24V. Lopata1.831211133L. Stoces1.83107110LSep 19 · 15:15V. Herrmann1.801113811113L. Stoces1.9161511982WSep 19 · 14:45L. Stoces2.3811115143V. Lopata1.532811121LSep 19 · 13:45L. Stoces2.35101060J. Juppa1.52121283WSep 19 · 08:39J. Jnr2.00761191L. Stoces1.7311119113LSep 19 · 07:30L. Stoces1.805470P. Orlowski1.911111113WSep 19 · 06:30L. Stoces1.7314811113J. Jnr2.001211851LSep 19 · 05:30L. Stoces2.3812690D. Brichacek1.531411113WSep 12 · 16:16L. Stoces1.951117113O. Chadima1.7531570LSep 12 · 15:45L. Stoces1.837570V. Lopata1.831111113
F. Kubos10
LSep 21 · 18:15S. Kalensky1.837111111113F. Kubos1.8311861382WSep 20 · 13:15F. Kubos2.001311113J. Juppa1.7311970LSep 20 · 12:00F. Kubos1.6713591172J. Snr2.101111114113WSep 20 · 10:30O. Chadima1.5731011111F. Kubos2.2511125133LSep 20 · 10:00J. Juppa1.61712118113F. Kubos2.20111041192WSep 18 · 21:13F. Kubos1.9111511123L. Hendrych1.806118101WSep 18 · 20:00J. Botka2.3811181692F. Kubos1.531181114113LSep 18 · 19:00L. Hendrych1.53911119113F. Kubos2.3811581192WSep 18 · 17:30J. Snr1.7310480F. Kubos2.001211113WSep 13 · 12:00J. Juppa1.53118891F. Kubos2.3851111113
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