TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Filip Kubos
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
11131113811––––
Stepan Kalensky
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingFilip Kubos above · Stepan Kalensky below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 67 set 3, 8-11
67 points played in total.
H2H Filip Kubos 15–17 Stepan Kalensky Filip Kubos has won 15 of their 32 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Kalensky beat Kubos 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kubos)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalensky form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubos 1.80 / Kalensky 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kubos)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13173117
Kubos1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 61 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it70% 46 of 66
Kalensky1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 46 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back29% 19 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKubos6wins
AwayKalensky4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKubos leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubos71.4%5 of 7
AwayKalensky66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubos7Kalensky3n = 10Kubos took 7 of 10
S2Kubos5Kalensky5n = 10split evenly
S3Kubos6Kalensky4n = 10Kubos took 6 of 10
S4Kubos5Kalensky3n = 8Kubos took 5 of 8
S5Kubos2Kalensky4n = 6Kalensky took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKubosKalenskyKubos − KalenskyBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.942.3+2.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubosKalenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 713 vs 277 / 51251.2%54.1%365 / 713 vs 277 / 512Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KubosKubos 1.80/Kalensky 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kubos · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kalensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 21 · 18:15F. Kubos4611861382S. Kalensky517111111113
WSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos4211911113S. Kalensky31311891
LSep 3 · 20:00F. Kubos4169111142S. Kalensky45111139113
LJul 20 · 17:30F. Kubos531112812102S. Kalensky547101114123
WJul 5 · 20:33F. Kubos44112711133S. Kalensky44711114112
WJul 5 · 17:30F. Kubos371111153S. Kalensky2869130
WJun 19 · 20:18F. Kubos3911611113S. Kalensky32811671
WJun 19 · 17:15F. Kubos521112810113S. Kalensky49810111282
LJun 13 · 05:30F. Kubos50711111292S. Kalensky47114714113
F. Kubos10
LSep 21 · 19:45F. Kubos2.2591111562V. Herrmann1.57117811113LSep 21 · 18:15S. Kalensky1.837111111113F. Kubos1.8311861382LSep 21 · 17:45L. Stoces1.2811111010113F. Kubos3.5095121272WSep 20 · 13:15F. Kubos2.001311113J. Juppa1.7311970LSep 20 · 12:00F. Kubos1.6713591172J. Snr2.101111114113WSep 20 · 10:30O. Chadima1.5731011111F. Kubos2.2511125133LSep 20 · 10:00J. Juppa1.61712118113F. Kubos2.20111041192WSep 18 · 21:13F. Kubos1.9111511123L. Hendrych1.806118101WSep 18 · 20:00J. Botka2.3811181692F. Kubos1.531181114113LSep 18 · 19:00L. Hendrych1.53911119113F. Kubos2.3811581192
S. Kalensky10
LSep 21 · 19:15S. Kalensky1.83711119102L. Stoces1.83118911123WSep 21 · 18:15S. Kalensky1.837111111113F. Kubos1.8311861382LSep 21 · 17:15S. Kalensky1.913660V. Herrmann1.801111113LSep 14 · 20:39J. Jnr1.361111143S. Kalensky3.0099120LSep 14 · 19:30S. Kalensky1.83611591R. Merkl1.8311811113LSep 14 · 18:30S. Kalensky2.6397110J. Jnr1.441111133LSep 14 · 17:30S. Kalensky2.631118151P. Rucky1.4481111173WSep 9 · 20:14S. Kalensky2.50711611113J. Gruber1.5011611942LSep 9 · 19:45J. Jnr1.611211113S. Kalensky2.2010680LSep 9 · 18:45P. Orlowski1.4491111113S. Kalensky2.63114691
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