TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Filip Kubos vs Leon Kolman 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711411115711––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:16 and never touched — 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Kubos above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 67 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Leon Kolman at 67.5%
67 points played in total.
H2H Filip Kubos 7–6 Leon Kolman Leon Kolman has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:16What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kolman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubos 1528 vs Kolman 1574
Kolman
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubos 20% vs Kolman 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubos 40% vs Kolman 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubos +1 · Kolman -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Kolman) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubos 2.75 / Kolman 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Kolman)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13202663
Kubos2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 74 of 171
Down 0–1, comes back26% 25 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 54
Kolman1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 99 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it92% 44 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it70% 76 of 109
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKubos5wins
AwayKolman5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubos100%3 of 3
AwayKolman71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubos3Kolman7n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S2Kubos7Kolman3n = 10Kubos took 7 of 10
S3Kubos3Kolman7n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S4Kubos2Kolman5n = 7Kolman took 5 of 7
S5Kubos4Kolman1n = 5Kubos took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKubosKolmanKubos − KolmanBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.340.4−2.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubosKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime356 / 703 vs 362 / 69550.6%52.1%356 / 703 vs 362 / 695Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.840.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanKubos 2.75/Kolman 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.7%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 9 · 09:15F. Kubos36712891L. Kolman43111011113
LJun 24 · 14:45F. Kubos248880L. Kolman331111113
LJun 16 · 10:00F. Kubos2311480L. Kolman351311113
LMay 23 · 15:30F. Kubos29511941L. Kolman3611311113
WApr 26 · 19:45F. Kubos45118113123L. Kolman48711911102
WApr 24 · 06:45F. Kubos47911511113L. Kolman4411911582
LApr 23 · 16:44F. Kubos4781111982L. Kolman50119811113
WApr 23 · 14:00F. Kubos5410111111113L. Kolman4612913572
WApr 17 · 10:00F. Kubos351111133L. Kolman2889110
WApr 1 · 09:15F. Kubos43111146113L. Kolman4167111162
F. Kubos10
WSep 27 · 17:30F. Kubos3.25711116113R. Merkl1.3311681182LSep 21 · 20:23F. Kubos1.80111180S. Kalensky1.911313113LSep 21 · 19:45F. Kubos2.2591111562V. Herrmann1.57117811113LSep 21 · 18:15S. Kalensky1.837111111113F. Kubos1.8311861382LSep 21 · 17:45L. Stoces1.2811111010113F. Kubos3.5095121272WSep 20 · 13:15F. Kubos2.001311113J. Juppa1.7311970LSep 20 · 12:00F. Kubos1.6713591172J. Snr2.101111114113WSep 20 · 10:30O. Chadima1.5731011111F. Kubos2.2511125133LSep 20 · 10:00J. Juppa1.61712118113F. Kubos2.20111041192WSep 18 · 21:13F. Kubos1.9111511123L. Hendrych1.806118101
L. Kolman10
LSep 27 · 18:00A. Pavlik2.1011118113L. Kolman1.67491171WSep 27 · 08:28L. Kolman2.201711712113P. Orlowski1.611513111072LSep 27 · 08:00L. Kolman1.9187100L. Provaznik1.801111123LSep 27 · 06:30P. Orlowski1.7311911113L. Kolman2.00811661LSep 27 · 06:00M. Hajek1.9191111113L. Kolman1.80118771LSep 26 · 16:55R. Merkl1.571111102L. Kolman2.2569100WSep 26 · 15:45L. Kolman1.61861114113R. Merkl2.20111171272LSep 26 · 14:15J. Simek1.911212910103L. Kolman1.801010111292LSep 26 · 13:45D. Brichacek1.9181161143L. Kolman1.8011611632LSep 25 · 16:45L. Kolman1.57119641A. Pavlik2.2591111113
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