TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Leon Kolman vs Roman Merkl 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511811111118911
Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:56 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 86 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Leon Kolman at 62.1%
86 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 18–11 Roman Merkl Roman Merkl has won 11 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kolman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-11 in 29
Kolman
Wrong
gap of 7 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolman 1584 vs Merkl 1477
Kolman
Wrong
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolman 40% vs Merkl 20%
Kolman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolman 30% vs Merkl 10%
Kolman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolman +1 · Merkl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Kolman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 1.57 / Merkl 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Kolman)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13202612
Kolman1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 99 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it92% 44 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it70% 76 of 109
Merkl2.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 86 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back39% 40 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back18% 9 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolman8wins
AwayMerkl2wins
6 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman80%4 of 5
AwayMerkl20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman5Merkl5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolman5Merkl5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolman7Merkl3n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S4Kolman7Merkl2n = 9Kolman took 7 of 9
S5Kolman4Merkl2n = 6Kolman took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolmanMerklK − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.441.3+4.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 696 vs 265 / 56052.2%47.3%363 / 696 vs 265 / 560Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.639.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanKolman 1.57/Merkl 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 26 · 15:45L. Kolman50861114113R. Merkl48111171272
WSep 13 · 08:35L. Kolman3851111113R. Merkl33114991
LSep 13 · 07:00L. Kolman4341191182R. Merkl48117118113
WAug 30 · 08:00L. Kolman45111211113R. Merkl33614671
WAug 22 · 08:00L. Kolman53138129113R. Merkl521111101192
LAug 21 · 18:15L. Kolman43111041172R. Merkl50912117113
WJul 27 · 14:15L. Kolman331111113R. Merkl209380
WJul 6 · 17:15L. Kolman47861111113R. Merkl4111114782
WJun 27 · 20:00L. Kolman551211109133R. Merkl481041211112
WJun 19 · 07:45L. Kolman47101313113R. Merkl4012111161
L. Kolman10
WSep 27 · 20:34L. Kolman1.6711141113A. Pavlik2.107121151WSep 27 · 18:30F. Kubos2.75741171L. Kolman1.4011115113LSep 27 · 18:00A. Pavlik2.1011118113L. Kolman1.67491171WSep 27 · 08:28L. Kolman2.201711712113P. Orlowski1.611513111072LSep 27 · 08:00L. Kolman1.9187100L. Provaznik1.801111123LSep 27 · 06:30P. Orlowski1.7311911113L. Kolman2.00811661LSep 27 · 06:00M. Hajek1.9191111113L. Kolman1.80118771LSep 26 · 16:55R. Merkl1.571111102L. Kolman2.2569100WSep 26 · 15:45L. Kolman1.61861114113R. Merkl2.20111171272LSep 26 · 14:15J. Simek1.911212910103L. Kolman1.801010111292
R. Merkl10
WSep 27 · 19:00A. Pavlik1.8014991392R. Merkl1.9112111111113LSep 27 · 17:30F. Kubos3.25711116113R. Merkl1.3311681182WSep 26 · 16:55R. Merkl1.571111102L. Kolman2.2569100LSep 26 · 15:45L. Kolman1.61861114113R. Merkl2.20111171272LSep 26 · 14:45D. Brichacek1.91611112113R. Merkl1.8011641132LSep 26 · 13:15J. Simek1.50111183R. Merkl2.509950LSep 26 · 08:14R. Merkl1.8066111142M. Taranko1.91111178113LSep 26 · 07:45Z. Kuksa1.731111113R. Merkl2.008890LSep 26 · 06:45M. Taranko1.8011115113R. Merkl1.91481161LSep 26 · 05:15T. Kanka1.83561111113R. Merkl1.8311116782
Upcoming Matches
L. Kolman
Nothing scheduled
R. Merkl
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