TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Leon Kolman vs Adam Pavlik 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 27Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171412111115––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Adam Pavlik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 1-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 72 set 4, 11-5
72 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 17–12 Adam Pavlik Adam Pavlik has won 12 of their 29 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Pavlik beat Kolman 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavlik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 1.67 / Pavlik 2.10
Setka Cup · #13208388
Kolman1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 99 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it92% 44 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it70% 76 of 109
Pavlik2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 37 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back30% 12 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolman7wins
AwayPavlik3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman80%4 of 5
AwayPavlik40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman5Pavlik5n = 10split evenly
S2Kolman4Pavlik6n = 10Pavlik took 6 of 10
S3Kolman7Pavlik3n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S4Kolman6Pavlik3n = 9Kolman took 6 of 9
S5Kolman3Pavlik1n = 4Kolman took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolmanPavlikK − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.240.1+2.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanPavlikBasisWin rate · lifetime363 / 697 vs 163 / 31952.1%51.1%363 / 697 vs 163 / 319Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanKolman 1.67/Pavlik 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
—
no pick shipped on this market
What happened
3–1
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 18:00L. Kolman31491171A. Pavlik4111118113
LSep 25 · 16:45L. Kolman30119641A. Pavlik4291111113
WSep 25 · 14:45L. Kolman4211911113A. Pavlik31411791
WSep 19 · 18:30L. Kolman521191011113A. Pavlik4391112472
WSep 6 · 19:15L. Kolman541191112113A. Pavlik49131181072
WAug 30 · 07:00L. Kolman46129311113A. Pavlik43101111742
LAug 15 · 12:20L. Kolman4591111682A. Pavlik51119911113
WAug 15 · 09:15L. Kolman4181111113A. Pavlik35118971
WJun 24 · 13:45L. Kolman48151111113A. Pavlik42178891
WMay 26 · 14:30L. Kolman331111113A. Pavlik249780
L. Kolman10
LSep 27 · 20:00L. Kolman1.5758111192R. Merkl2.25111118113WSep 27 · 18:30F. Kubos2.75741171L. Kolman1.4011115113LSep 27 · 18:00A. Pavlik2.1011118113L. Kolman1.67491171WSep 27 · 08:28L. Kolman2.201711712113P. Orlowski1.611513111072LSep 27 · 08:00L. Kolman1.9187100L. Provaznik1.801111123LSep 27 · 06:30P. Orlowski1.7311911113L. Kolman2.00811661LSep 27 · 06:00M. Hajek1.9191111113L. Kolman1.80118771LSep 26 · 16:55R. Merkl1.571111102L. Kolman2.2569100WSep 26 · 15:45L. Kolman1.61861114113R. Merkl2.20111171272LSep 26 · 14:15J. Simek1.911212910103L. Kolman1.801010111292
A. Pavlik10
LSep 27 · 19:30F. Kubos2.2512611123A. Pavlik1.5710118101LSep 27 · 19:00A. Pavlik1.8014991392R. Merkl1.9112111111113WSep 27 · 18:00A. Pavlik2.1011118113L. Kolman1.67491171WSep 25 · 16:45L. Kolman1.57119641A. Pavlik2.2591111113WSep 25 · 15:15T. Kanka1.73111011982A. Pavlik2.00612711113LSep 25 · 14:45A. Pavlik2.10411791L. Kolman1.6711911113WSep 25 · 13:45A. Pavlik2.1011115113P. Provaznik1.67981141WSep 19 · 20:33T. Hucko1.447950A. Pavlik2.631111113LSep 19 · 19:30A. Pavlik2.206990T. Hucko1.611111113LSep 19 · 18:30A. Pavlik2.1091112472L. Kolman1.671191011113
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