TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Yurii Parahailo vs Dmytro Shchegelskyi 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1113711114114711
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:17 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeYurii Parahailo to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYurii Parahailo above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 90 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Yurii Parahailo at 55.8%
90 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Parahailo 63–53 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Dmytro Shchegelskyi has won 53 of their 116 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:17What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Parahailo
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
63-53 in 116
Parahailo
Wrong
gap of 10 in 116, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Parahailo 1543 vs Shchegelskyi 1540
Parahailo
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Parahailo 20% vs Shchegelskyi 40%
Shchegelskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Parahailo 30% vs Shchegelskyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Parahailo -2 · Shchegelskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Parahailo)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParahailo 1.67 / Shchegelskyi 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Parahailo)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13196603
Parahailo1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 86 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it89% 47 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it77% 65 of 84
Shchegelskyi2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 58 of 170
Down 0–1, comes back20% 22 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParahailo8wins
AwayShchegelskyi2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderParahailo leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParahailo100%7 of 7
AwayShchegelskyi66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Parahailo7Shchegelskyi3n = 10Parahailo took 7 of 10
S2Parahailo9Shchegelskyi1n = 10Parahailo took 9 of 10
S3Parahailo5Shchegelskyi5n = 10split evenly
S4Parahailo4Shchegelskyi3n = 7Parahailo took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricParahailoShchegelskyiP − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.733.4+5.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParahailoShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime399 / 797 vs 460 / 89950.1%51.2%399 / 797 vs 460 / 899Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParahailoParahailo 1.67/Shchegelskyi 2.10
Miss
What we said
55.8%
Parahailo · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Shchegelskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 20 · 01:30Y. Parahailo4611616133D. Shchegelskyi4261114111
WAug 30 · 15:35Y. Parahailo48111196113D. Shchegelskyi4559111192
WJul 27 · 09:35Y. Parahailo3311110113D. Shchegelskyi30761161
WJul 26 · 14:05Y. Parahailo341211113D. Shchegelskyi2410680
LJul 26 · 00:30Y. Parahailo4011127101D. Shchegelskyi46131011123
WJul 19 · 16:05Y. Parahailo331111113D. Shchegelskyi228860
WJul 18 · 21:00Y. Parahailo331111113D. Shchegelskyi155730
WJun 1 · 11:35Y. Parahailo3511112113D. Shchegelskyi32981141
LMay 31 · 18:35Y. Parahailo4681111972D. Shchegelskyi45117511113
Y. Parahailo10
LSep 26 · 21:30Y. Parahailo1.83741171R. Novak1.8311118113LSep 26 · 20:00Y. Parahailo2.38111171472Y. Vorsuliak1.53671116113WSep 21 · 18:55O. Storozhenko1.8312106141Y. Parahailo1.83101211163LSep 21 · 17:25Y. Parahailo1.6151211842M. Potapov2.201110811113LSep 21 · 15:25I. Pytsko2.25129711113Y. Parahailo1.57101111382LSep 21 · 13:25I. Fashchevskyi2.6361111163Y. Parahailo1.441187141LSep 21 · 12:25D. Maltsev1.83129911113Y. Parahailo1.83101111982LSep 20 · 18:35Y. Parahailo1.73135861O. Storozhenko2.00111111113WSep 20 · 16:35R. Novak1.8389121192Y. Parahailo1.831111107113WSep 20 · 15:35Y. Parahailo1.801011911103D. Shchegelskyi1.9112511762
D. Shchegelskyi10
LSep 26 · 22:00D. Shchegelskyi2.251161081Y. Vorsuliak1.5751112113WSep 26 · 21:00Y. Tebenko2.108980D. Shchegelskyi1.671111113LSep 20 · 19:05Y. Tebenko2.1041113113D. Shchegelskyi1.671151181WSep 20 · 17:35D. Shchegelskyi1.8371111143O. Storozhenko1.831195121LSep 20 · 15:35Y. Parahailo1.801011911103D. Shchegelskyi1.9112511762LSep 20 · 13:35R. Novak2.00811213113D. Shchegelskyi1.731111101182WSep 20 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.20811116102D. Shchegelskyi1.61118911123LSep 20 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.10118511113D. Shchegelskyi1.6771111872LSep 20 · 01:30Y. Parahailo1.6711616133D. Shchegelskyi2.1061114111WSep 20 · 00:00M. Khomenko2.10113891D. Shchegelskyi1.6751111113
Upcoming Matches
Y. Parahailo
Sep 27 · 00:30Y. Parahailo1.83Y. Tebenko1.83—Sep 27 · 02:00Y. Parahailo3.75M. Khomenko1.25—Sep 27 · 12:05Y. Parahailo1.83R. Novak1.83—Sep 27 · 14:05Y. Parahailo1.67D. Shchegelskyi2.10—Sep 27 · 16:05Y. Parahailo3.25Y. Kolos1.33—Sep 27 · 17:35Y. Parahailo2.25Y. Vorsuliak1.57—Sep 27 · 18:35Y. Parahailo3.75M. Khomenko1.25—
D. Shchegelskyi
Sep 27 · 01:00D. Shchegelskyi1.61M. Khomenko2.20—Sep 27 · 03:00D. Shchegelskyi1.67R. Novak2.10—Sep 27 · 13:05D. Shchegelskyi1.61M. Khomenko2.20—Sep 27 · 14:05D. Shchegelskyi2.10Y. Parahailo1.67—Sep 27 · 15:05D. Shchegelskyi1.67R. Novak2.10—Sep 27 · 17:05D. Shchegelskyi1.73Y. Kolos2.00—Sep 27 · 19:05D. Shchegelskyi2.25Y. Vorsuliak1.57—
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