TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ruslan Novak
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81111112101311118
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:45 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeDmytro Shchegelskyi to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 96 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Dmytro Shchegelskyi at 56.9%
96 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 30–50 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Ruslan Novak has won 30 of their 80 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:45What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-50 in 80
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
gap of 20 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1474 vs Shchegelskyi 1541
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 20% vs Shchegelskyi 60%
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 30% vs Shchegelskyi 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak +1 · Shchegelskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Shchegelskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novak form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 2.00 / Shchegelskyi 1.73
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Shchegelskyi)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13162145
Novak2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog32% won 23 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back22% 10 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Shchegelskyi1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 90 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it73% 57 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovak3wins
AwayShchegelskyi7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderShchegelskyi leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovak25%1 of 4
AwayShchegelskyi66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak4Shchegelskyi6n = 10Shchegelskyi took 6 of 10
S2Novak8Shchegelskyi2n = 10Novak took 8 of 10
S3Novak2Shchegelskyi8n = 10Shchegelskyi took 8 of 10
S4Novak2Shchegelskyi8n = 10Shchegelskyi took 8 of 10
S5Novak2Shchegelskyi2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovakShchegelskyiN − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.843.0+0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 504 vs 475 / 91851.8%51.7%261 / 504 vs 475 / 918Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShchegelskyiNovak 2.00/Shchegelskyi 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.9%
Shchegelskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Novak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 22:00R. Novak391211971D. Shchegelskyi3714111113
WAug 3 · 06:35R. Novak521111136113D. Shchegelskyi5069151192
LAug 2 · 13:05R. Novak401112981D. Shchegelskyi4371411113
LAug 1 · 21:00R. Novak407111391D. Shchegelskyi4311615113
LJul 27 · 05:35R. Novak29611481D. Shchegelskyi3811511113
LJul 26 · 13:05R. Novak53111511882D. Shchegelskyi546131311113
LJul 25 · 21:00R. Novak48116811122D. Shchegelskyi49411119143
WJul 20 · 07:05R. Novak44111111113D. Shchegelskyi30137281
LJul 19 · 14:35R. Novak429111481D. Shchegelskyi4411616113
WJul 13 · 06:35R. Novak511011118113D. Shchegelskyi4212461192
R. Novak10
WSep 20 · 12:05R. Novak1.7311811143O. Storozhenko2.006113121LSep 20 · 03:00R. Novak1.83881291Y. Parahailo1.83111110113LSep 20 · 01:00M. Khomenko1.83971311113R. Novak1.83111111782LSep 19 · 23:00Y. Tebenko1.91111011113R. Novak1.80912971LSep 19 · 22:00R. Novak2.101211971D. Shchegelskyi1.6714111113LSep 19 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.381113123R. Novak1.53711100WSep 13 · 18:05R. Novak2.2581114113Y. Kolos1.571121291LSep 13 · 16:35R. Novak1.53891191V. Kovalchuk2.3811114113WSep 13 · 15:05R. Novak1.831461110113Y. Parahailo1.83121191292LSep 13 · 13:35R. Novak1.8091111882M. Khomenko1.91116711113
D. Shchegelskyi10
WSep 20 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.20811116102D. Shchegelskyi1.61118911123LSep 20 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.10118511113D. Shchegelskyi1.6771111872LSep 20 · 01:30Y. Parahailo1.6711616133D. Shchegelskyi2.1061114111WSep 20 · 24:00M. Khomenko2.10113891D. Shchegelskyi1.6751111113WSep 19 · 22:00R. Novak2.101211971D. Shchegelskyi1.6714111113LSep 19 · 20:00Y. Tebenko2.10118611113D. Shchegelskyi1.6781111942LSep 18 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi2.2558110Y. Vorsuliak1.571111133LSep 18 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.441111113D. Shchegelskyi2.639850LSep 18 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi3.251241041V. Slozka1.33101112113LSep 18 · 07:05M. Loboda1.571011316113D. Shchegelskyi2.25127111492
Upcoming Matches
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