TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111181196111012
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:17 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeDmytro Shchegelskyi to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 97 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Dmytro Shchegelskyi at 56.2%
97 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 54–81 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 54 of their 135 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:17What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Shchegelskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
54-81 in 135
Shchegelskyi
Correct
gap of 27 in 135, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1602 vs Shchegelskyi 1536
Kovalchuk
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 100% vs Shchegelskyi 40%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 80% vs Shchegelskyi 30%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +5 · Shchegelskyi -2
Kovalchuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Shchegelskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shchegelskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.20 / Shchegelskyi 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Shchegelskyi)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13162091
Kovalchuk2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 101 of 228
Down 0–1, comes back21% 23 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54
Shchegelskyi1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 90 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it73% 57 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk3wins
AwayShchegelskyi7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderShchegelskyi leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk50%3 of 6
AwayShchegelskyi100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk6Shchegelskyi4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk5Shchegelskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalchuk3Shchegelskyi7n = 10Shchegelskyi took 7 of 10
S4Kovalchuk1Shchegelskyi5n = 6Shchegelskyi took 5 of 6
S5Kovalchuk1Shchegelskyi2n = 3Shchegelskyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukShchegelskyiK − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.937.3−2.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime375 / 775 vs 474 / 91748.4%51.7%375 / 775 vs 474 / 917Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShchegelskyiKovalchuk 2.20/Shchegelskyi 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.9%
Shchegelskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Shchegelskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk46118511113D. Shchegelskyi4471111872
LAug 1 · 23:00V. Kovalchuk46611116122D. Shchegelskyi51117811143
LJul 13 · 11:05V. Kovalchuk29910100D. Shchegelskyi351112123
WJul 12 · 13:05V. Kovalchuk331111113D. Shchegelskyi185760
LJul 12 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk35117891D. Shchegelskyi3961111113
LJul 6 · 09:05V. Kovalchuk4411117962D. Shchegelskyi45391111113
WJul 5 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk351311113D. Shchegelskyi2611690
LJun 15 · 07:35V. Kovalchuk32611781D. Shchegelskyi4111811113
LJun 14 · 24:30V. Kovalchuk154650D. Shchegelskyi331111113
LMar 29 · 16:05V. Kovalchuk34119591D. Shchegelskyi4181111113
V. Kovalchuk10
WSep 20 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.10118511113D. Shchegelskyi1.6771111872WSep 20 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.006712101V. Kovalchuk1.73111110123WSep 19 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.63129119113Y. Parahailo1.44101141172WSep 19 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.7371180V. Kovalchuk2.001113113WSep 19 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.381113123R. Novak1.53711100LSep 19 · 02:00I. Fashchevskyi2.751111115113V. Kovalchuk1.4076131192WSep 19 · 01:00V. Kovalchuk1.33111011113D. Maltsev3.25312991WSep 19 · 24:00V. Kovalchuk1.571111143I. Pytsko2.2599120WSep 18 · 22:30V. Kovalchuk1.80915119113O. Budnikov1.91111311162LSep 18 · 20:30V. Kovalchuk1.8311811972O. Storozhenko1.83911811113
D. Shchegelskyi10
LSep 20 · 13:35R. Novak2.00811213113D. Shchegelskyi1.731111101182LSep 20 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.10118511113D. Shchegelskyi1.6771111872LSep 20 · 01:30Y. Parahailo1.6711616133D. Shchegelskyi2.1061114111WSep 20 · 24:00M. Khomenko2.10113891D. Shchegelskyi1.6751111113WSep 19 · 22:00R. Novak2.101211971D. Shchegelskyi1.6714111113LSep 19 · 20:00Y. Tebenko2.10118611113D. Shchegelskyi1.6781111942LSep 18 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi2.2558110Y. Vorsuliak1.571111133LSep 18 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.441111113D. Shchegelskyi2.639850LSep 18 · 08:05D. Shchegelskyi3.251241041V. Slozka1.33101112113LSep 18 · 07:05M. Loboda1.571011316113D. Shchegelskyi2.25127111492
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