TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Yaroslav Tebenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
4111151311118––
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Shchegelskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Tebenko above · Dmytro Shchegelskyi below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 74 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Dmytro Shchegelskyi at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Tebenko 26–33 Dmytro Shchegelskyi Yaroslav Tebenko has won 26 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:55What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-33 in 59
Shchegelskyi
Wrong
gap of 7 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tebenko 1612 vs Shchegelskyi 1516
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tebenko 40% vs Shchegelskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tebenko 60% vs Shchegelskyi 40%
Tebenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tebenko +2 · Shchegelskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Shchegelskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Shchegelskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTebenko 2.10 / Shchegelskyi 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Shchegelskyi)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13161846
Tebenko2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 122 of 256
Down 0–1, comes back31% 42 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 74
Shchegelskyi1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 90 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it73% 57 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTebenko4wins
AwayShchegelskyi6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderShchegelskyi leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTebenko40%2 of 5
AwayShchegelskyi60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tebenko5Shchegelskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Tebenko1Shchegelskyi9n = 10Shchegelskyi took 9 of 10
S3Tebenko1Shchegelskyi9n = 10Shchegelskyi took 9 of 10
S4Tebenko4Shchegelskyi3n = 7Tebenko took 4 of 7
S5Tebenko4Shchegelskyi0n = 4Tebenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricTebenkoShchegelskyiT − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.940.6−1.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTebenkoShchegelskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 850 vs 476 / 92148.5%51.7%412 / 850 vs 476 / 921Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ShchegelskyiTebenko 2.10/Shchegelskyi 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Shchegelskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 20:00Y. Tebenko47118611113D. Shchegelskyi4381111942
LApr 28 · 09:35Y. Tebenko4111111091D. Shchegelskyi4481312113
LApr 27 · 13:05Y. Tebenko4211121181D. Shchegelskyi4131413113
LApr 26 · 22:30Y. Tebenko2082100D. Shchegelskyi341111123
WMar 25 · 10:05Y. Tebenko47511911113D. Shchegelskyi4011411682
WFeb 14 · 23:00Y. Tebenko50119811113D. Shchegelskyi4251111872
LJan 18 · 02:00Y. Tebenko371111871D. Shchegelskyi4491311113
WJan 16 · 13:55Y. Tebenko53991311113D. Shchegelskyi50111111892
LJan 12 · 10:05Y. Tebenko2610880D. Shchegelskyi341211113
LDec 12 · 10:25Y. Tebenko2671090D. Shchegelskyi341112113
Y. Tebenko10
WSep 20 · 17:05V. Kovalchuk1.6711911832Y. Tebenko2.10711811113WSep 20 · 15:05R. Novak1.8371171162Y. Tebenko1.83117119113LSep 20 · 14:05Y. Tebenko1.91118971O. Storozhenko1.8081111113LSep 20 · 13:05Y. Parahailo1.9111411123Y. Tebenko1.809119101LSep 20 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.635780M. Khomenko1.441111113LSep 20 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.006712101V. Kovalchuk1.73111110123WSep 19 · 23:00Y. Tebenko1.91111011113R. Novak1.80912971WSep 19 · 21:30Y. Tebenko1.83116711123Y. Parahailo1.83911114102WSep 19 · 20:00Y. Tebenko2.10118611113D. Shchegelskyi1.6781111942WSep 16 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.8311119113O. Storozhenko1.83891161
D. Shchegelskyi10
WSep 20 · 17:35D. Shchegelskyi1.8371111143O. Storozhenko1.831195121LSep 20 · 15:35Y. Parahailo1.801011911103D. Shchegelskyi1.9112511762LSep 20 · 13:35R. Novak2.00811213113D. Shchegelskyi1.731111101182WSep 20 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.20811116102D. Shchegelskyi1.61118911123LSep 20 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.10118511113D. Shchegelskyi1.6771111872LSep 20 · 01:30Y. Parahailo1.6711616133D. Shchegelskyi2.1061114111WSep 20 · 24:00M. Khomenko2.10113891D. Shchegelskyi1.6751111113WSep 19 · 22:00R. Novak2.101211971D. Shchegelskyi1.6714111113LSep 19 · 20:00Y. Tebenko2.10118611113D. Shchegelskyi1.6781111942LSep 18 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi2.2558110Y. Vorsuliak1.571111133
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