TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ruslan Novak
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711117711119611
Yaroslav Tebenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Novak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Yaroslav Tebenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 91 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Ruslan Novak at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 6–4 Yaroslav Tebenko Yaroslav Tebenko has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:15What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Tebenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Novak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1499 vs Tebenko 1587
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 40% vs Tebenko 20%
Novak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 40% vs Tebenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak +2 · Tebenko -4
Tebenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tebenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tebenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 1.83 / Tebenko 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tebenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13161664
Novak1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Tebenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovak6wins
AwayTebenko4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNovak leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovak80%4 of 5
AwayTebenko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak5Tebenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Novak7Tebenko3n = 10Novak took 7 of 10
S3Novak3Tebenko7n = 10Tebenko took 7 of 10
S4Novak3Tebenko7n = 10Tebenko took 7 of 10
S5Novak4Tebenko0n = 4Novak took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovakTebenkoN − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.941.6+0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakTebenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 505 vs 410 / 84851.9%48.4%262 / 505 vs 410 / 848Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoNovak 1.83/Tebenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 23:00R. Novak37912971Y. Tebenko43111011113
LSep 12 · 23:00R. Novak401313771Y. Tebenko48151111113
LSep 12 · 01:15R. Novak27114661Y. Tebenko4181111113
WFeb 15 · 02:30R. Novak49811127113Y. Tebenko49118101192
WJan 12 · 12:05R. Novak50118911113Y. Tebenko4141111782
LJan 8 · 07:25R. Novak3961011121Y. Tebenko4411127143
WJan 7 · 18:55R. Novak4011117113Y. Tebenko25261161
WJun 23 · 11:05R. Novak3741111113Y. Tebenko29116571
WMay 7 · 05:35R. Novak521113314113Y. Tebenko54811111682
WFeb 25 · 06:35R. Novak48111178113Y. Tebenko4238111192
R. Novak10
WSep 20 · 13:35R. Novak2.00811213113D. Shchegelskyi1.731111101182WSep 20 · 12:05R. Novak1.7311811143O. Storozhenko2.006113121LSep 20 · 03:00R. Novak1.83881291Y. Parahailo1.83111110113LSep 20 · 01:00M. Khomenko1.83971311113R. Novak1.83111111782LSep 19 · 23:00Y. Tebenko1.91111011113R. Novak1.80912971LSep 19 · 22:00R. Novak2.101211971D. Shchegelskyi1.6714111113LSep 19 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.381113123R. Novak1.53711100WSep 13 · 18:05R. Novak2.2581114113Y. Kolos1.571121291LSep 13 · 16:35R. Novak1.53891191V. Kovalchuk2.3811114113WSep 13 · 15:05R. Novak1.831461110113Y. Parahailo1.83121191292
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 20 · 14:05Y. Tebenko1.91118971O. Storozhenko1.8081111113LSep 20 · 13:05Y. Parahailo1.9111411123Y. Tebenko1.809119101LSep 20 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.635780M. Khomenko1.441111113LSep 20 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.006712101V. Kovalchuk1.73111110123WSep 19 · 23:00Y. Tebenko1.91111011113R. Novak1.80912971WSep 19 · 21:30Y. Tebenko1.83116711123Y. Parahailo1.83911114102WSep 19 · 20:00Y. Tebenko2.10118611113D. Shchegelskyi1.6781111942WSep 16 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.8311119113O. Storozhenko1.83891161WSep 16 · 09:05I. Fashchevskyi2.63112811102Y. Tebenko1.44711119123LSep 16 · 08:05Y. Tebenko1.809121161D. Maltsev1.9111149113
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