TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Yurii Parahailo
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1194111191210––
Yaroslav Tebenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:34 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYurii Parahailo above · Yaroslav Tebenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 77 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Parahailo 30–34 Yaroslav Tebenko Yurii Parahailo has won 30 of their 64 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:34What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tebenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-34 in 64
Tebenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 64, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Parahailo 1580 vs Tebenko 1630
Tebenko
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Parahailo 40% vs Tebenko 60%
Tebenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Parahailo 40% vs Tebenko 60%
Tebenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Parahailo +2 · Tebenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tebenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParahailo 1.91 / Tebenko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tebenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13161748
Parahailo1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 64 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back15% 14 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 62
Tebenko1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 55 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it82% 37 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParahailo5wins
AwayTebenko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParahailo100%5 of 5
AwayTebenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Parahailo5Tebenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Parahailo5Tebenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Parahailo6Tebenko4n = 10Parahailo took 6 of 10
S4Parahailo2Tebenko5n = 7Tebenko took 5 of 7
S5Parahailo2Tebenko1n = 3Parahailo took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricParahailoTebenkoP − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.736.4+0.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParahailoTebenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime403 / 800 vs 410 / 84650.4%48.5%403 / 800 vs 410 / 846Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TebenkoParahailo 1.91/Tebenko 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tebenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Parahailo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 21:30Y. Parahailo45911114102Y. Tebenko47116711123
WSep 14 · 07:35Y. Parahailo351311113Y. Tebenko2111190
LSep 12 · 20:00Y. Parahailo187470Y. Tebenko331111113
WAug 31 · 09:05Y. Parahailo48118117113Y. Tebenko4241181182
LAug 26 · 07:05Y. Parahailo31691151Y. Tebenko4111118113
WAug 19 · 09:05Y. Parahailo48115811133Y. Tebenko46411119112
LAug 18 · 18:35Y. Parahailo30651181Y. Tebenko4111118113
WAug 15 · 24:00Y. Parahailo3911116113Y. Tebenko23541131
LAug 12 · 07:05Y. Parahailo405161091Y. Tebenko48111412113
WAug 10 · 21:00Y. Parahailo331111113Y. Tebenko229760
Y. Parahailo10
WSep 20 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk2.63611171142Y. Parahailo1.44117199113WSep 20 · 03:00R. Novak1.83881291Y. Parahailo1.83111110113WSep 20 · 01:30Y. Parahailo1.6711616133D. Shchegelskyi2.1061114111LSep 19 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.63129119113Y. Parahailo1.44101141172LSep 19 · 21:30Y. Tebenko1.83116711123Y. Parahailo1.83911114102LSep 19 · 20:30M. Khomenko1.251111113Y. Parahailo3.759780WSep 14 · 10:35Y. Parahailo4.003141011133M. Khomenko1.221112128112LSep 14 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.5059111172V. Kovalchuk2.50111172113WSep 14 · 07:35Y. Parahailo2.001311113Y. Tebenko1.7311190LSep 14 · 06:05Y. Parahailo2.633870O. Rodin1.441111113
Y. Tebenko10
LSep 20 · 14:05Y. Tebenko1.91118971O. Storozhenko1.8081111113LSep 20 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.635780M. Khomenko1.441111113LSep 20 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.006712101V. Kovalchuk1.73111110123WSep 19 · 23:00Y. Tebenko1.91111011113R. Novak1.80912971WSep 19 · 21:30Y. Tebenko1.83116711123Y. Parahailo1.83911114102WSep 19 · 20:00Y. Tebenko2.10118611113D. Shchegelskyi1.6781111942WSep 16 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.8311119113O. Storozhenko1.83891161WSep 16 · 09:05I. Fashchevskyi2.63112811102Y. Tebenko1.44711119123LSep 16 · 08:05Y. Tebenko1.809121161D. Maltsev1.9111149113LSep 14 · 07:35Y. Parahailo2.001311113Y. Tebenko1.7311190
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