TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Dmytro Shchegelskyi
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111191151412––
Oleksandr Storozhenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Storozhenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Shchegelskyi above · Oleksandr Storozhenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 80 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Oleksandr Storozhenko at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Shchegelskyi 2–2 Oleksandr Storozhenko Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:26What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Storozhenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shchegelskyi 1500 vs Storozhenko 1608
Storozhenko
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shchegelskyi 20% vs Storozhenko 40%
Storozhenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shchegelskyi 30% vs Storozhenko 60%
Storozhenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shchegelskyi -2 · Storozhenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Storozhenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Storozhenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShchegelskyi 1.83 / Storozhenko 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Storozhenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13161959
Shchegelskyi1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Storozhenko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeShchegelskyi2wins
AwayStorozhenko2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShchegelskyin = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayStorozhenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shchegelskyi0Storozhenko4n = 4Storozhenko took 4 of 4
S2Shchegelskyi3Storozhenko1n = 4Shchegelskyi took 3 of 4
S3Shchegelskyi3Storozhenko1n = 4Shchegelskyi took 3 of 4
S4Shchegelskyi1Storozhenko2n = 3Storozhenko took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricShchegelskyiStorozhenkoShchegelskyi − StorozhenkoBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match41.043.0−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShchegelskyiStorozhenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime475 / 920 vs 267 / 51051.6%52.4%475 / 920 vs 267 / 510Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StorozhenkoShchegelskyi 1.83/Storozhenko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Storozhenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Shchegelskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WApr 28 · 05:05D. Shchegelskyi44711114113O. Storozhenko4411881162
LApr 27 · 14:35D. Shchegelskyi49101211972O. Storozhenko521210811113
LApr 26 · 21:00D. Shchegelskyi2515460O. Storozhenko391711113
WMar 27 · 04:15D. Shchegelskyi4691111153O. Storozhenko371167131
D. Shchegelskyi10
LSep 20 · 15:35Y. Parahailo1.801011911103D. Shchegelskyi1.9112511762LSep 20 · 13:35R. Novak2.00811213113D. Shchegelskyi1.731111101182WSep 20 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.20811116102D. Shchegelskyi1.61118911123LSep 20 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.10118511113D. Shchegelskyi1.6771111872LSep 20 · 01:30Y. Parahailo1.6711616133D. Shchegelskyi2.1061114111WSep 20 · 24:00M. Khomenko2.10113891D. Shchegelskyi1.6751111113WSep 19 · 22:00R. Novak2.101211971D. Shchegelskyi1.6714111113LSep 19 · 20:00Y. Tebenko2.10118611113D. Shchegelskyi1.6781111942LSep 18 · 11:05D. Shchegelskyi2.2558110Y. Vorsuliak1.571111133LSep 18 · 09:05I. Hrekh1.441111113D. Shchegelskyi2.639850
O. Storozhenko10
WSep 20 · 18:35Y. Parahailo1.73135861O. Storozhenko2.00111111113WSep 20 · 16:05V. Kovalchuk1.8061211342O. Storozhenko1.911110511113WSep 20 · 14:05Y. Tebenko1.91118971O. Storozhenko1.8081111113LSep 20 · 12:05R. Novak1.7311811143O. Storozhenko2.006113121LSep 19 · 03:00D. Maltsev2.2011117123O. Storozhenko1.615911101LSep 19 · 01:30O. Storozhenko1.61146671I. Pytsko2.20121111113WSep 18 · 23:30O. Budnikov2.3811771192O. Storozhenko1.53511113113WSep 18 · 21:30I. Fashchevskyi2.20118111032O. Storozhenko1.61711812113WSep 18 · 20:30V. Kovalchuk1.8311811972O. Storozhenko1.83911811113LSep 16 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.8311119113O. Storozhenko1.83891161
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