TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117911118811311
Yaroslav Tebenko
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Tebenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladyslav Kovalchuk above · Yaroslav Tebenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 90 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Yaroslav Tebenko at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Kovalchuk 40–36 Yaroslav Tebenko Yaroslav Tebenko has won 36 of their 76 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:06What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kovalchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-36 in 76
Kovalchuk
Wrong
gap of 4 in 76, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1556 vs Tebenko 1603
Tebenko
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 40% vs Tebenko 20%
Kovalchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Tebenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk -3 · Tebenko +1
Kovalchuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tebenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 1.67 / Tebenko 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalchuk)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13161870
Kovalchuk1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 81 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it89% 32 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it77% 58 of 75
Tebenko2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 122 of 256
Down 0–1, comes back31% 42 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk7wins
AwayTebenko3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk75%6 of 8
AwayTebenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk8Tebenko2n = 10Kovalchuk took 8 of 10
S2Kovalchuk8Tebenko2n = 10Kovalchuk took 8 of 10
S3Kovalchuk4Tebenko6n = 10Tebenko took 6 of 10
S4Kovalchuk4Tebenko3n = 7Kovalchuk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukTebenkoK − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.434.3+3.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukTebenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime375 / 778 vs 411 / 84948.2%48.4%375 / 778 vs 411 / 849Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalchukKovalchuk 1.67/Tebenko 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kovalchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tebenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 24:30V. Kovalchuk44111110123Y. Tebenko356712101
LSep 14 · 05:35V. Kovalchuk28135641Y. Tebenko44111111113
LSep 13 · 24:30V. Kovalchuk4211115872Y. Tebenko41261111113
WAug 19 · 07:05V. Kovalchuk341111123Y. Tebenko2385100
WAug 18 · 16:35V. Kovalchuk4341711113Y. Tebenko381115661
WAug 14 · 22:30V. Kovalchuk50119611133Y. Tebenko45911113112
WAug 5 · 07:05V. Kovalchuk3811115113Y. Tebenko33691171
WAug 4 · 18:35V. Kovalchuk331111113Y. Tebenko247980
LAug 4 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk28811721Y. Tebenko4111811113
WJul 29 · 09:35V. Kovalchuk341211113Y. Tebenko1910450
V. Kovalchuk10
WSep 20 · 18:05R. Novak1.67108111172V. Kovalchuk2.10121115113LSep 20 · 16:05V. Kovalchuk1.8061211342O. Storozhenko1.911110511113LSep 20 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk2.63611171142Y. Parahailo1.44117199113LSep 20 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.20811116102D. Shchegelskyi1.61118911123WSep 20 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.10118511113D. Shchegelskyi1.6771111872WSep 20 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.006712101V. Kovalchuk1.73111110123WSep 19 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.63129119113Y. Parahailo1.44101141172WSep 19 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.7371180V. Kovalchuk2.001113113WSep 19 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.381113123R. Novak1.53711100LSep 19 · 02:00I. Fashchevskyi2.751111115113V. Kovalchuk1.4076131192
Y. Tebenko10
WSep 20 · 15:05R. Novak1.8371171162Y. Tebenko1.83117119113LSep 20 · 14:05Y. Tebenko1.91118971O. Storozhenko1.8081111113LSep 20 · 13:05Y. Parahailo1.9111411123Y. Tebenko1.809119101LSep 20 · 02:00Y. Tebenko2.635780M. Khomenko1.441111113LSep 20 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.006712101V. Kovalchuk1.73111110123WSep 19 · 23:00Y. Tebenko1.91111011113R. Novak1.80912971WSep 19 · 21:30Y. Tebenko1.83116711123Y. Parahailo1.83911114102WSep 19 · 20:00Y. Tebenko2.10118611113D. Shchegelskyi1.6781111942WSep 16 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.8311119113O. Storozhenko1.83891161WSep 16 · 09:05I. Fashchevskyi2.63112811102Y. Tebenko1.44711119123
Upcoming Matches
V. Kovalchuk
Nothing scheduled
Y. Tebenko
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