TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ruslan Novak
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012811111115711
Vladyslav Kovalchuk
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:56 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeRuslan Novak to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Vladyslav Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 87 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Ruslan Novak at 56.5%
87 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 52–22 Vladyslav Kovalchuk Vladyslav Kovalchuk has won 22 of their 74 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:56What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Novak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
52-22 in 74
Novak
Wrong
gap of 30 in 74, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1470 vs Kovalchuk 1547
Kovalchuk
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 40% vs Kovalchuk 20%
Novak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 30% vs Kovalchuk 50%
Kovalchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak -2 · Kovalchuk -4
Kovalchuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novak) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 1.67 / Kovalchuk 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Novak)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13162036
Novak1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 87 of 158
Up 2–0, closes it93% 52 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it74% 64 of 86
Kovalchuk2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 101 of 228
Down 0–1, comes back21% 23 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovak4wins
AwayKovalchuk6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKovalchuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovak75%3 of 4
AwayKovalchuk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak4Kovalchuk6n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Novak2Kovalchuk8n = 10Kovalchuk took 8 of 10
S3Novak5Kovalchuk5n = 10split evenly
S4Novak3Kovalchuk3n = 6split evenly
S5Novak2Kovalchuk1n = 3Novak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovakKovalchukN − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.936.8−0.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 507 vs 375 / 77951.7%48.1%262 / 507 vs 375 / 779Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovakNovak 1.67/Kovalchuk 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Novak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 21:00R. Novak28711100V. Kovalchuk361113123
LSep 13 · 16:35R. Novak37891191V. Kovalchuk3711114113
LSep 12 · 21:00R. Novak36117991V. Kovalchuk4291111113
WAug 9 · 16:35R. Novak331111113V. Kovalchuk177730
WAug 2 · 24:30R. Novak48611911113V. Kovalchuk4011511852
WJul 13 · 05:35R. Novak4112711113V. Kovalchuk351011771
LJul 11 · 21:00R. Novak186660V. Kovalchuk331111113
LJul 6 · 05:35R. Novak3059160V. Kovalchuk401111183
WJul 5 · 13:05R. Novak491110116113V. Kovalchuk4161261162
LJun 22 · 08:05R. Novak3993111152V. Kovalchuk47111195113
R. Novak10
LSep 20 · 16:35R. Novak1.8389121192Y. Parahailo1.831111107113LSep 20 · 15:05R. Novak1.8371171162Y. Tebenko1.83117119113WSep 20 · 13:35R. Novak2.00811213113D. Shchegelskyi1.731111101182WSep 20 · 12:05R. Novak1.7311811143O. Storozhenko2.006113121LSep 20 · 03:00R. Novak1.83881291Y. Parahailo1.83111110113LSep 20 · 01:00M. Khomenko1.83971311113R. Novak1.83111111782LSep 19 · 23:00Y. Tebenko1.91111011113R. Novak1.80912971LSep 19 · 22:00R. Novak2.101211971D. Shchegelskyi1.6714111113LSep 19 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.381113123R. Novak1.53711100WSep 13 · 18:05R. Novak2.2581114113Y. Kolos1.571121291
V. Kovalchuk10
LSep 20 · 17:05V. Kovalchuk1.6711911832Y. Tebenko2.10711811113LSep 20 · 16:05V. Kovalchuk1.8061211342O. Storozhenko1.911110511113LSep 20 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk2.63611171142Y. Parahailo1.44117199113LSep 20 · 12:35V. Kovalchuk2.20811116102D. Shchegelskyi1.61118911123WSep 20 · 02:30V. Kovalchuk2.10118511113D. Shchegelskyi1.6771111872WSep 20 · 24:30Y. Tebenko2.006712101V. Kovalchuk1.73111110123WSep 19 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.63129119113Y. Parahailo1.44101141172WSep 19 · 22:30M. Khomenko1.7371180V. Kovalchuk2.001113113WSep 19 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.381113123R. Novak1.53711100LSep 19 · 02:00I. Fashchevskyi2.751111115113V. Kovalchuk1.4076131192
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