TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ruslan Novak
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8119111210117911
Yurii Parahailo
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:26 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Parahailo to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRuslan Novak above · Yurii Parahailo below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 99 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Yurii Parahailo at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Ruslan Novak 38–50 Yurii Parahailo Ruslan Novak has won 38 of their 88 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:26What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Parahailo
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-50 in 88
Parahailo
Correct
gap of 12 in 88, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novak 1483 vs Parahailo 1631
Parahailo
Correct
both rated, 148 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novak 40% vs Parahailo 100%
Parahailo
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novak 30% vs Parahailo 60%
Parahailo
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novak -1 · Parahailo +5
Parahailo
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Parahailo)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovak 1.83 / Parahailo 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Parahailo)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13161979
Novak1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Parahailo1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovak6wins
AwayParahailo4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNovak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovak80%4 of 5
AwayParahailo60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novak5Parahailo5n = 10split evenly
S2Novak5Parahailo5n = 10split evenly
S3Novak6Parahailo4n = 10Novak took 6 of 10
S4Novak3Parahailo6n = 9Parahailo took 6 of 9
S5Novak3Parahailo0n = 3Novak took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovakParahailoN − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.440.40.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovakParahailoBasisWin rate · lifetime262 / 506 vs 406 / 80351.8%50.6%262 / 506 vs 406 / 803Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParahailoNovak 1.83/Parahailo 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Parahailo · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Parahailo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 03:00R. Novak37881291Y. Parahailo43111110113
WSep 13 · 15:05R. Novak521461110113Y. Parahailo53121191292
LSep 12 · 22:00R. Novak3761110101Y. Parahailo4011512123
WJul 27 · 07:05R. Novak495101112113Y. Parahailo50111291082
WJul 26 · 18:35R. Novak4111811113Y. Parahailo34711791
WJul 25 · 23:00R. Novak351111133Y. Parahailo2494110
LJul 19 · 18:35R. Novak28117641Y. Parahailo4071111113
WJun 1 · 08:05R. Novak3841112113Y. Parahailo341161071
LMay 31 · 14:05R. Novak389117111Y. Parahailo4111611133
WMay 25 · 11:05R. Novak491111511113Y. Parahailo4575111392
R. Novak10
LSep 20 · 15:05R. Novak1.8371171162Y. Tebenko1.83117119113WSep 20 · 13:35R. Novak2.00811213113D. Shchegelskyi1.731111101182WSep 20 · 12:05R. Novak1.7311811143O. Storozhenko2.006113121LSep 20 · 03:00R. Novak1.83881291Y. Parahailo1.83111110113LSep 20 · 01:00M. Khomenko1.83971311113R. Novak1.83111111782LSep 19 · 23:00Y. Tebenko1.91111011113R. Novak1.80912971LSep 19 · 22:00R. Novak2.101211971D. Shchegelskyi1.6714111113LSep 19 · 21:00V. Kovalchuk2.381113123R. Novak1.53711100WSep 13 · 18:05R. Novak2.2581114113Y. Kolos1.571121291LSep 13 · 16:35R. Novak1.53891191V. Kovalchuk2.3811114113
Y. Parahailo10
WSep 20 · 15:35Y. Parahailo1.801011911103D. Shchegelskyi1.9112511762WSep 20 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk2.63611171142Y. Parahailo1.44117199113WSep 20 · 13:05Y. Parahailo1.9111411123Y. Tebenko1.809119101WSep 20 · 03:00R. Novak1.83881291Y. Parahailo1.83111110113WSep 20 · 01:30Y. Parahailo1.6711616133D. Shchegelskyi2.1061114111LSep 19 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.63129119113Y. Parahailo1.44101141172LSep 19 · 21:30Y. Tebenko1.83116711123Y. Parahailo1.83911114102LSep 19 · 20:30M. Khomenko1.251111113Y. Parahailo3.759780WSep 14 · 10:35Y. Parahailo4.003141011133M. Khomenko1.221112128112LSep 14 · 09:05Y. Parahailo1.5059111172V. Kovalchuk2.50111172113
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