TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Denys Maltsev
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210911911119118
Yurii Parahailo
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Maltsev to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Maltsev above · Yurii Parahailo below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 101 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Denys Maltsev at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Denys Maltsev 18–14 Yurii Parahailo Yurii Parahailo has won 14 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:53What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Parahailo
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-14 in 32
Maltsev
Correct
gap of 4 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maltsev 1561 vs Parahailo 1606
Parahailo
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maltsev 60% vs Parahailo 80%
Parahailo
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maltsev 60% vs Parahailo 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maltsev -2 · Parahailo -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Parahailo) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Parahailo form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaltsev 1.83 / Parahailo 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Parahailo)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13166301
Maltsev1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Parahailo1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaltsev6wins
AwayParahailo4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMaltsev leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaltsev66.7%4 of 6
AwayParahailo50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maltsev6Parahailo4n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S2Maltsev9Parahailo1n = 10Maltsev took 9 of 10
S3Maltsev5Parahailo5n = 10split evenly
S4Maltsev2Parahailo6n = 8Parahailo took 6 of 8
S5Maltsev2Parahailo2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaltsevParahailoM − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.439.0+1.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaltsevParahailoBasisWin rate · lifetime457 / 886 vs 407 / 80551.6%50.6%457 / 886 vs 407 / 805Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParahailoMaltsev 1.83/Parahailo 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Parahailo · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Maltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 06:05D. Maltsev368117101Y. Parahailo4011611123
WAug 30 · 02:30D. Maltsev361114113Y. Parahailo2371240
LAug 26 · 08:35D. Maltsev26921141Y. Parahailo4111118113
LAug 19 · 04:35D. Maltsev4111119372Y. Parahailo42721111113
WAug 18 · 01:30D. Maltsev3911116113Y. Parahailo35781191
WAug 15 · 01:30D. Maltsev537111112123Y. Parahailo48117614102
WAug 12 · 08:35D. Maltsev561111158113Y. Parahailo5279171182
WAug 11 · 17:35D. Maltsev4361115113Y. Parahailo411191381
LAug 8 · 04:25D. Maltsev4011114862Y. Parahailo47681111113
WAug 7 · 15:55D. Maltsev341211113Y. Parahailo2110470
D. Maltsev10
LSep 21 · 02:45D. Maltsev2.5011114572I. Pytsko1.50971111113LSep 21 · 24:45V. Moshovskyi1.731211113D. Maltsev2.0010990WSep 20 · 23:45D. Maltsev1.831111113M. Potapov1.837980WSep 20 · 22:45V. Korobko3.50154761D. Maltsev1.28131111113WSep 20 · 21:15D. Maltsev1.731111113I. Fashchevskyi2.007560WSep 19 · 03:00D. Maltsev2.2011117123O. Storozhenko1.615911101LSep 19 · 01:00V. Kovalchuk1.33111011113D. Maltsev3.25312991WSep 18 · 23:00I. Fashchevskyi2.0012541152D. Maltsev1.731011118113LSep 18 · 22:00D. Maltsev2.38711531I. Pytsko1.5311811113WSep 18 · 21:00O. Budnikov1.6758111172D. Maltsev2.10111138113
Y. Parahailo10
LSep 21 · 13:25I. Fashchevskyi2.6361111163Y. Parahailo1.441187141LSep 20 · 18:35Y. Parahailo1.73135861O. Storozhenko2.00111111113WSep 20 · 16:35R. Novak1.8389121192Y. Parahailo1.831111107113WSep 20 · 15:35Y. Parahailo1.801011911103D. Shchegelskyi1.9112511762WSep 20 · 14:35V. Kovalchuk2.63611171142Y. Parahailo1.44117199113WSep 20 · 13:05Y. Parahailo1.9111411123Y. Tebenko1.809119101WSep 20 · 03:00R. Novak1.83881291Y. Parahailo1.83111110113WSep 20 · 01:30Y. Parahailo1.6711616133D. Shchegelskyi2.1061114111LSep 19 · 23:30V. Kovalchuk2.63129119113Y. Parahailo1.44101141172LSep 19 · 21:30Y. Tebenko1.83116711123Y. Parahailo1.83911114102
Upcoming Matches
D. Maltsev
Y. Parahailo
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