TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Denys Maltsev
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119118––––
Mykhailo Potapov
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenys Maltsev above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 57 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Denys Maltsev 18–20 Mykhailo Potapov Denys Maltsev has won 18 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:54What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Potapov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-20 in 38
Potapov
Wrong
gap of 2 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maltsev 1577 vs Potapov 1552
Maltsev
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maltsev 80% vs Potapov 40%
Maltsev
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maltsev 70% vs Potapov 40%
Maltsev
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maltsev +3 · Potapov -2
Maltsev
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maltsev) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potapov form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaltsev 1.83 / Potapov 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Maltsev)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13161533
Maltsev1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Potapov1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaltsev3wins
AwayPotapov7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderPotapov leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaltsev33.3%1 of 3
AwayPotapov71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maltsev3Potapov7n = 10Potapov took 7 of 10
S2Maltsev3Potapov7n = 10Potapov took 7 of 10
S3Maltsev5Potapov5n = 10split evenly
S4Maltsev5Potapov3n = 8Maltsev took 5 of 8
S5Maltsev2Potapov4n = 6Potapov took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaltsevPotapovM − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.544.7−5.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaltsevPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime456 / 883 vs 201 / 42351.6%47.5%456 / 883 vs 201 / 423Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaltsevMaltsev 1.83/Potapov 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Maltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Maltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 10:35D. Maltsev4411152972M. Potapov548131111113
LSep 8 · 17:05D. Maltsev217770M. Potapov331111113
WSep 7 · 21:45D. Maltsev51812812113M. Potapov511110111092
LSep 5 · 20:00D. Maltsev4713971172M. Potapov521111118113
LSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev4284111182M. Potapov49111179113
LSep 1 · 12:05D. Maltsev32871161M. Potapov4211119113
WAug 20 · 21:45D. Maltsev511151410113M. Potapov46711121242
WAug 17 · 23:30D. Maltsev4371111143M. Potapov401198121
LAug 12 · 04:35D. Maltsev4164111282M. Potapov471111410113
LJul 31 · 11:55D. Maltsev237790M. Potapov331111113
D. Maltsev10
WSep 20 · 22:45V. Korobko3.50154761D. Maltsev1.28131111113WSep 20 · 21:15D. Maltsev1.731111113I. Fashchevskyi2.007560WSep 19 · 03:00D. Maltsev2.2011117123O. Storozhenko1.615911101LSep 19 · 01:00V. Kovalchuk1.33111011113D. Maltsev3.25312991WSep 18 · 23:00I. Fashchevskyi2.0012541152D. Maltsev1.731011118113LSep 18 · 22:00D. Maltsev2.38711531I. Pytsko1.5311811113WSep 18 · 21:00O. Budnikov1.6758111172D. Maltsev2.10111138113WSep 16 · 11:35I. Pytsko1.50127111172D. Maltsev2.50141167113LSep 16 · 10:05D. Maltsev2.204680O. Storozhenko1.611111113WSep 16 · 08:05Y. Tebenko1.809121161D. Maltsev1.9111149113
M. Potapov10
LSep 20 · 21:45V. Moshovskyi2.25931412113M. Potapov1.571111121062LSep 20 · 20:45V. Korobko3.50101112113M. Potapov1.281281061WSep 12 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80821111113Y. Tebenko1.9111118992LSep 12 · 24:45M. Potapov1.25115541V. Korobko3.7581111113WSep 11 · 23:15M. Potapov2.20131110113R. Novak1.611181221LSep 11 · 21:45M. Potapov2.25711971O. Storozhenko1.5711511113LSep 11 · 20:15M. Potapov2.20891161I. Pytsko1.6111115113WSep 9 · 10:35D. Maltsev1.8311152972M. Potapov1.838131111113WSep 9 · 09:35M. Potapov2.20911115113I. Pytsko1.6111691152LSep 9 · 08:35M. Potapov1.8381161172I. Fashchevskyi1.83115117113
Upcoming Matches
D. Maltsev
M. Potapov
Sep 21 · 01:45M. Potapov2.10I. Pytsko1.67—Sep 21 · 03:15M. Potapov1.83I. Fashchevskyi1.83—Sep 21 · 11:55M. Potapov1.83I. Fashchevskyi1.83—Sep 21 · 13:55M. Potapov2.50O. Storozhenko1.50—Sep 21 · 15:55M. Potapov1.83D. Maltsev1.83—Sep 21 · 17:25M. Potapov2.20Y. Parahailo1.61—Sep 21 · 18:25M. Potapov2.10I. Pytsko1.67—
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