TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Volodymyr Korobko
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
10121181210116––
Mykhailo Potapov
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:34 and never touched — 77.5% is still 77.5%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
77.5%
77.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Korobko above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 80 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 77.5%
80 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Korobko 7–17 Mykhailo Potapov Volodymyr Korobko has won 7 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:34What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Potapov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-17 in 24
Potapov
Wrong
gap of 10 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Korobko 1459 vs Potapov 1579
Potapov
Wrong
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Korobko 40% vs Potapov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Korobko 40% vs Potapov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Korobko -1 · Potapov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Potapov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potapov form (40%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKorobko 3.50 / Potapov 1.28
Signal prob.23% / 78%
Edge (Potapov)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13161374
Korobko3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 37 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Potapov1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 9 days ago (Sep 12) · back after a break
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 47 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKorobko1wins
AwayPotapov9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPotapov leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKorobkon = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayPotapov90%9 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Korobko0Potapov10n = 10Potapov took 10 of 10
S2Korobko3Potapov7n = 10Potapov took 7 of 10
S3Korobko2Potapov8n = 10Potapov took 8 of 10
S4Korobko2Potapov2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricKorobkoPotapovK − PBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match25.636.3−10.7per matchSweeps06−63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKorobkoPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 470 vs 206 / 43344.7%47.6%210 / 470 vs 206 / 433Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.638.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovKorobko 3.50/Potapov 1.28
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
77.5%
Potapov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Korobko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 24:45V. Korobko4181111113M. Potapov25115541
LSep 7 · 20:45V. Korobko4071141352M. Potapov511171111113
LSep 6 · 02:00V. Korobko215970M. Potapov331111113
LSep 4 · 24:15V. Korobko304121131M. Potapov4511149113
LSep 1 · 01:00V. Korobko29711921M. Potapov4111811113
LAug 21 · 02:15V. Korobko209830M. Potapov331111113
LAug 18 · 24:30V. Korobko2283110M. Potapov351111133
LAug 11 · 24:00V. Korobko2486100M. Potapov341111123
LJul 23 · 22:45V. Korobko124530M. Potapov331111113
LMar 17 · 24:00V. Korobko178450M. Potapov331111113
V. Korobko10
LSep 19 · 01:49V. Korobko1.530411111S. Prus2.3811114133WSep 18 · 23:45S. Prus2.257131281V. Korobko1.57111510113LSep 18 · 22:45V. Korobko2.0011111091M. Slozka1.7391312113WSep 18 · 21:45O. Sydorchuk1.91711412112V. Korobko1.801181110133LSep 18 · 20:45V. Korobko1.7313119141D. Palii2.0015711163WSep 15 · 02:00O. Storozhenko1.735680V. Korobko2.001111113LSep 15 · 01:00V. Korobko3.506680D. Maltsev1.281111113LSep 15 · 24:00V. Korobko2.0081060I. Pytsko1.731112113LSep 14 · 22:30V. Korobko1.91561111Y. Makovka1.8011116113WSep 14 · 20:30V. Korobko1.5711812113I. Fashchevskyi2.256111071
M. Potapov10
WSep 12 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80821111113Y. Tebenko1.9111118992LSep 12 · 24:45M. Potapov1.25115541V. Korobko3.7581111113WSep 11 · 23:15M. Potapov2.20131110113R. Novak1.611181221LSep 11 · 21:45M. Potapov2.25711971O. Storozhenko1.5711511113LSep 11 · 20:15M. Potapov2.20891161I. Pytsko1.6111115113WSep 9 · 10:35D. Maltsev1.8311152972M. Potapov1.838131111113WSep 9 · 09:35M. Potapov2.20911115113I. Pytsko1.6111691152LSep 9 · 08:35M. Potapov1.8381161172I. Fashchevskyi1.83115117113LSep 9 · 07:05M. Potapov1.731176101Y. Tebenko2.0091111123WSep 9 · 05:05M. Potapov2.5081111113O. Storozhenko1.50118961
Upcoming Matches
V. Korobko
M. Potapov
Sep 20 · 23:45M. Potapov1.83D. Maltsev1.83—Sep 21 · 01:45M. Potapov2.10I. Pytsko1.67—Sep 21 · 03:15M. Potapov1.83I. Fashchevskyi1.83—Sep 21 · 11:55M. Potapov1.83I. Fashchevskyi1.83—Sep 21 · 13:55M. Potapov2.50O. Storozhenko1.50—Sep 21 · 15:55M. Potapov1.83D. Maltsev1.83—Sep 21 · 17:25M. Potapov2.20Y. Parahailo1.61—Sep 21 · 18:25M. Potapov2.10I. Pytsko1.67—
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