TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Vasyl Moshovskyi
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
91131114121210116
Mykhailo Potapov
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:25 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Potapov to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasyl Moshovskyi above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 99 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Mykhailo Potapov at 63.3%
99 points played in total.
H2H Vasyl Moshovskyi 3–6 Mykhailo Potapov Vasyl Moshovskyi has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:25What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Potapov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Potapov
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moshovskyi 1506 vs Potapov 1564
Potapov
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moshovskyi 40% vs Potapov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moshovskyi 40% vs Potapov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moshovskyi -3 · Potapov -1
Moshovskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Potapov) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potapov form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoshovskyi 2.25 / Potapov 1.57
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Potapov)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13160996
Moshovskyi2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 33 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back28% 13 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Potapov1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 47 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMoshovskyi3wins
AwayPotapov6wins
Potapov leads 6–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoshovskyi50%2 of 4
AwayPotapov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moshovskyi4Potapov5n = 9Potapov took 5 of 9
S2Moshovskyi5Potapov4n = 9Moshovskyi took 5 of 9
S3Moshovskyi4Potapov5n = 9Potapov took 5 of 9
S4Moshovskyi2Potapov6n = 8Potapov took 6 of 8
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away667%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricMoshovskyiPotapovM − PBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match35.436.3−0.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoshovskyiPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 330 vs 201 / 42254.9%47.6%181 / 330 vs 201 / 422Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotapovMoshovskyi 2.25/Potapov 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.3%
Potapov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Moshovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 8 · 18:05V. Moshovskyi29681141M. Potapov3711114113
WSep 1 · 18:05V. Moshovskyi331111113M. Potapov218670
LAug 31 · 23:00V. Moshovskyi41817971M. Potapov48111511113
LAug 10 · 20:00V. Moshovskyi35811791M. Potapov3911611113
WFeb 11 · 11:55V. Moshovskyi3911611113M. Potapov35911961
LJan 23 · 17:25V. Moshovskyi34118871M. Potapov3961111113
LJan 20 · 23:30V. Moshovskyi32811581M. Potapov3811511113
LJan 15 · 10:35V. Moshovskyi32115881M. Potapov4181111113
WJan 14 · 17:35V. Moshovskyi44111111113M. Potapov29133671
V. Moshovskyi10
LSep 20 · 20:15V. Moshovskyi2.386116101I. Pytsko1.5311811123LSep 8 · 18:05V. Moshovskyi2.10681141M. Potapov1.6711114113LSep 8 · 16:35V. Moshovskyi1.5711411682Y. Tebenko2.25311211113WSep 8 · 15:05V. Moshovskyi1.7311111010113D. Maltsev2.0068121282WSep 8 · 13:35V. Moshovskyi2.10121011123O. Storozhenko1.6710126101LSep 8 · 12:05V. Moshovskyi2.25111110992I. Pytsko1.57891211113WSep 1 · 18:05M. Potapov1.578670V. Moshovskyi2.251111113LSep 1 · 17:05V. Moshovskyi1.801031181M. Slozka1.9112114113LSep 1 · 16:05V. Moshovskyi1.67137117102D. Maltsev2.101111611123WSep 1 · 14:35V. Moshovskyi3.2511117113I. Pytsko1.33971171
M. Potapov10
LSep 20 · 20:45V. Korobko3.50101112113M. Potapov1.281281061WSep 12 · 02:15M. Potapov1.80821111113Y. Tebenko1.9111118992LSep 12 · 24:45M. Potapov1.25115541V. Korobko3.7581111113WSep 11 · 23:15M. Potapov2.20131110113R. Novak1.611181221LSep 11 · 21:45M. Potapov2.25711971O. Storozhenko1.5711511113LSep 11 · 20:15M. Potapov2.20891161I. Pytsko1.6111115113WSep 9 · 10:35D. Maltsev1.8311152972M. Potapov1.838131111113WSep 9 · 09:35M. Potapov2.20911115113I. Pytsko1.6111691152WSep 8 · 18:05V. Moshovskyi2.10681141M. Potapov1.6711114113LSep 1 · 18:05M. Potapov1.578670V. Moshovskyi2.251111113
Upcoming Matches
V. Moshovskyi
M. Potapov
Sep 20 · 23:45M. Potapov1.83D. Maltsev1.83—Sep 21 · 01:45M. Potapov2.10I. Pytsko1.67—Sep 21 · 03:15M. Potapov1.83I. Fashchevskyi1.83—Sep 21 · 11:55M. Potapov1.83I. Fashchevskyi1.83—Sep 21 · 13:55M. Potapov2.50O. Storozhenko1.50—Sep 21 · 15:55M. Potapov1.83D. Maltsev1.83—Sep 21 · 17:25M. Potapov2.20Y. Parahailo1.61—Sep 21 · 18:25M. Potapov2.10I. Pytsko1.67—
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