TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Skvrna vs Ivan Heuman 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 24Finished
Jan Skvrna
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116911411411––
Ivan Heuman
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:02 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Heuman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Ivan Heuman below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 67 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Ivan Heuman at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Jan Skvrna 10–9 Ivan Heuman Ivan Heuman has won 9 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:02What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skvrna
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-9 in 19
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvrna 1640 vs Heuman 1556
Skvrna
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvrna 40% vs Heuman 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvrna 30% vs Heuman 50%
Heuman
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvrna +1 · Heuman -3
Heuman
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Skvrna) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvrna form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvrna 1.73 / Heuman 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Skvrna)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13185783
Skvrna1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 230 of 392
Up 2–0, closes it95% 74 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it75% 161 of 214
Heuman2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 21)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 56 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back31% 17 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvrna5wins
AwayHeuman5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvrna50%2 of 4
AwayHeuman50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvrna4Heuman6n = 10Heuman took 6 of 10
S2Skvrna4Heuman6n = 10Heuman took 6 of 10
S3Skvrna5Heuman5n = 10split evenly
S4Skvrna6Heuman4n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S5Skvrna2Heuman1n = 3Skvrna took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvrnaHeumanS − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.043.00.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvrnaHeumanBasisWin rate · lifetime484 / 836 vs 210 / 42957.9%49%484 / 836 vs 210 / 429Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSkvrna 1.73/Heuman 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.9%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Heuman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 5 · 21:15J. Skvrna3811122131I. Heuman49131011153
LJul 5 · 19:40J. Skvrna379711101I. Heuman4311119123
WJun 22 · 07:45J. Skvrna4071111113I. Heuman37119981
LJun 15 · 17:10J. Skvrna401114781I. Heuman4571611113
WJun 15 · 14:10J. Skvrna551014713113I. Heuman541212111182
WJun 10 · 17:15J. Skvrna3911611113I. Heuman32811761
WJun 10 · 14:10J. Skvrna461011311113I. Heuman4112111982
LJun 5 · 17:10J. Skvrna561113101392I. Heuman578151211113
LJun 5 · 15:40J. Skvrna3871011101I. Heuman3711122123
WMay 17 · 11:10J. Skvrna4113611113I. Heuman351111761
J. Skvrna10
WSep 24 · 06:45J. Skvrna1.531113410113D. Pawlik2.38211111262WSep 23 · 16:48M. Zaskodny2.7591112121J. Skvrna1.4011714143LSep 23 · 16:10J. Skvrna1.306111191M. Zaskodny3.4011813113LSep 23 · 14:40D. Sarganek1.831112113J. Skvrna1.8331080LSep 23 · 14:10A. Baros1.73511136113J. Skvrna2.00116111182WSep 23 · 12:40L. Slavik2.20910111552J. Skvrna1.611112813113LSep 23 · 11:45L. Slavik2.251281211113J. Skvrna1.57101114892LSep 23 · 11:15B. Mrowetz1.911111113J. Skvrna1.807970LSep 23 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.6774111192J. Krupnik2.10111176113WSep 22 · 12:44J. Skvrna1.5711117113D. Pawlik2.25671191
I. Heuman10
LSep 21 · 08:48I. Heuman1.7311111962D. Pawlik2.00661111113LSep 21 · 08:15I. Heuman2.10119861R. Benes1.6751111113LSep 21 · 06:45T. Krenek1.80111311113I. Heuman1.91815771WSep 21 · 06:15D. Pawlik2.2011861152I. Heuman1.61811115113WSep 16 · 21:10I. Heuman1.731111113A. Kanak2.007990LSep 16 · 20:15I. Heuman1.7338100A. Cizek2.001111123WSep 16 · 18:45D. Stusek1.4497111172I. Heuman2.63111186113WSep 16 · 18:15A. Kanak1.831168101I. Heuman1.8361111123LSep 15 · 20:40I. Heuman1.6310311101A. Kanak2.1512119123WSep 15 · 20:10A. Kanak2.00581141I. Heuman1.7311118113
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