TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13139356
Played Sep 16Finished
David Stusek
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911711118116711
Ivan Heuman
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:29 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeDavid Stusek to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Stusek above · Ivan Heuman below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 5-9
Point 88 set 5, 5-9 — our read held David Stusek at 64.5%
88 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H David Stusek 3–1 Ivan Heuman Ivan Heuman has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:29What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Stusek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Stusek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stusek 1616 vs Heuman 1586
Stusek
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stusek 80% vs Heuman 40%
Stusek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stusek 60% vs Heuman 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stusek +4 · Heuman +1
Stusek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Stusek) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stusek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStusek 1.44 / Heuman 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Stusek)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13139356
Stusek1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 26 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Heuman2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 55 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back32% 17 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStusek3wins
AwayHeuman1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderStusek leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStusek75%3 of 4
AwayHeumann = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stusek4Heuman0n = 4Stusek took 4 of 4
S2Stusek2Heuman2n = 4split evenly
S3Stusek2Heuman2n = 4split evenly
S4Stusek2Heuman1n = 3Stusek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricStusekHeumanS − HBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match39.037.8+1.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStusekHeumanBasisWin rate · lifetime93 / 186 vs 207 / 42250%49.1%93 / 186 vs 207 / 422Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StusekStusek 1.44/Heuman 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Stusek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Heuman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 15 · 19:10D. Stusek341211113I. Heuman2310760
WJul 31 · 19:40D. Stusek3711411113I. Heuman34711971
WMay 11 · 18:10D. Stusek47121185113I. Heuman46107111172
LFeb 20 · 18:40D. Stusek3811661142I. Heuman48611119113
D. Stusek10
LSep 16 · 19:45D. Stusek1.8010111071A. Kanak1.9112612113WSep 16 · 17:45D. Stusek1.61381111113A. Cizek2.2011119392WSep 15 · 21:08D. Stusek1.7311811113J. Travnicek2.00711271WSep 15 · 19:40J. Travnicek1.83961171D. Stusek1.8311116113WSep 15 · 19:10I. Heuman2.2010760D. Stusek1.611211113LSep 15 · 18:10D. Stusek1.80117691A. Kanak1.9141111113LSep 6 · 09:25J. Gembala1.611111113D. Stusek2.206970WSep 6 · 08:10F. Chaloupka1.911111711112D. Stusek1.80913119133LSep 6 · 07:10D. Stusek2.381210961J. Gembala1.53101211113WSep 6 · 05:40B. Moravec1.806950D. Stusek1.911111113
I. Heuman10
WSep 16 · 18:15A. Kanak1.831168101I. Heuman1.8361111123LSep 15 · 20:40I. Heuman1.6310311101A. Kanak2.1512119123WSep 15 · 20:10A. Kanak2.00581141I. Heuman1.7311118113LSep 15 · 19:10I. Heuman2.2010760D. Stusek1.611211113LSep 15 · 17:40J. Travnicek1.67124912113I. Heuman2.101011111092WSep 14 · 21:10I. Heuman2.00111111123D. Vitasek1.739913101WSep 14 · 20:10A. Kanak1.831013100I. Heuman1.831215123WSep 14 · 19:10I. Heuman1.831111113D. Vitasek1.837680WSep 14 · 17:40J. Travnicek1.61991291I. Heuman2.20111110113LSep 12 · 20:39I. Heuman1.55114591J. Palat2.3041111113
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