TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Lukas Slavik vs Jan Skvrna 3-2 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Lukas Slavik
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12108111214118119
Jan Skvrna
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:50 and never touched — 55.2% is still 55.2%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
55.2%
55.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Slavik above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 106 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 55.2%
106 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Slavik 3–5 Jan Skvrna Lukas Slavik has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:50What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Skvrna
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Skvrna
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slavik 1607 vs Skvrna 1673
Skvrna
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slavik 40% vs Skvrna 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slavik 40% vs Skvrna 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Slavik -3 · Skvrna -2
Slavik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Skvrna) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvrna form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlavik 2.25 / Skvrna 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Skvrna)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13180673
Slavik2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 35 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back37% 16 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Skvrna1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 228 of 386
Up 2–0, closes it95% 73 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it75% 159 of 212
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSlavik3wins
AwaySkvrna5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderSkvrna leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlavik66.7%2 of 3
AwaySkvrna80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slavik3Skvrna5n = 8Skvrna took 5 of 8
S2Slavik3Skvrna5n = 8Skvrna took 5 of 8
S3Slavik3Skvrna5n = 8Skvrna took 5 of 8
S4Slavik3Skvrna4n = 7Skvrna took 4 of 7
S5Slavik2Skvrna1n = 3Slavik took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricSlavikSkvrnaSlavik − SkvrnaBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match35.141.5−6.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlavikSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 227 vs 482 / 83051.5%58.1%117 / 227 vs 482 / 830Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSlavik 2.25/Skvrna 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Slavik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 15 · 09:45L. Slavik2045110J. Skvrna351111133
WSep 10 · 11:15L. Slavik43641111113J. Skvrna3911118272
WSep 6 · 10:45L. Slavik46114119113J. Skvrna4231191182
LSep 1 · 13:15L. Slavik33116791J. Skvrna4181111113
LSep 1 · 11:45L. Slavik387128111J. Skvrna45111011133
LJul 2 · 13:40L. Slavik3351141122J. Skvrna51119119113
WJun 15 · 12:35L. Slavik43111011113J. Skvrna37812891
LJun 15 · 09:40L. Slavik25611261J. Skvrna4211911113
L. Slavik10
LSep 23 · 12:40L. Slavik2.20910111552J. Skvrna1.611112813113LSep 23 · 10:45L. Slavik2.005811101J. Krupnik1.7311118123LSep 23 · 09:45L. Slavik2.0071090B. Mrowetz1.731112113LSep 17 · 09:15R. Benes1.6211811113L. Slavik2.02511781WSep 17 · 07:45L. Slavik1.83911118113T. Kindl1.8311391142WSep 17 · 06:45L. Slavik1.8371211133D. Jr1.8311107111LSep 17 · 05:45L. Slavik1.83116761R. Benes1.8381111113LSep 16 · 09:04L. Slavik1.6751080M. Macurak2.101112113WSep 16 · 07:40M. Macurak1.83114111192L. Slavik1.83131117113WSep 16 · 07:10D. Vitasek2.007760L. Slavik1.731111113
J. Skvrna10
WSep 23 · 12:40L. Slavik2.20910111552J. Skvrna1.611112813113LSep 23 · 11:15B. Mrowetz1.911111113J. Skvrna1.807970LSep 23 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.6774111192J. Krupnik2.10111176113WSep 22 · 12:44J. Skvrna1.5711117113D. Pawlik2.25671191LSep 22 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.83512421T. Krenek1.83111011113WSep 22 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.57125117113D. Pawlik2.25101151152LSep 22 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.501191171D. Jr2.5013116113LSep 20 · 21:24M. Macurak1.9111115113J. Skvrna1.80971161LSep 20 · 19:45M. Macurak2.1013118113J. Skvrna1.671171131WSep 20 · 19:15D. Vitasek2.6351211121J. Skvrna1.4411148143
Upcoming Matches
L. Slavik
Nothing scheduled
J. Skvrna
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