TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Daniel Vitasek
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
51112141181214––
Jan Skvrna
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:14 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Vitasek above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 87 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 67.7%
87 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Vitasek 12–16 Jan Skvrna Daniel Vitasek has won 12 of their 28 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:14What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-16 in 28
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 4 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vitasek 1485 vs Skvrna 1742
Skvrna
Correct
both rated, 257 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vitasek 20% vs Skvrna 80%
Skvrna
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vitasek 10% vs Skvrna 80%
Skvrna
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vitasek -2 · Skvrna +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Skvrna)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvrna form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVitasek 2.63 / Skvrna 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Skvrna)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13164349
Vitasek2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog49% won 87 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back24% 23 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Skvrna1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 228 of 384
Up 2–0, closes it95% 72 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it75% 158 of 211
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVitasek5wins
AwaySkvrna5wins
Level at 5–5.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVitasek80%4 of 5
AwaySkvrna80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vitasek5Skvrna5n = 10split evenly
S2Vitasek4Skvrna6n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S3Vitasek6Skvrna4n = 10Vitasek took 6 of 10
S4Vitasek4Skvrna4n = 8split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVitasekSkvrnaV − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.036.4−0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVitasekSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 626 vs 479 / 82147.8%58.3%299 / 626 vs 479 / 821Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.840.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaVitasek 2.63/Skvrna 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 1 · 17:15D. Vitasek193790J. Skvrna331111113
WAug 1 · 15:15D. Vitasek4411912123J. Skvrna3871110101
LJul 27 · 20:38D. Vitasek36911791J. Skvrna4211911113
WJul 27 · 20:15D. Vitasek331111113J. Skvrna228680
LJul 24 · 20:38D. Vitasek351267101J. Skvrna44101111123
WJul 24 · 18:40D. Vitasek3711411113J. Skvrna31911741
LJul 4 · 13:15D. Vitasek4191111101J. Skvrna4511139123
LJul 4 · 10:45D. Vitasek4081210101J. Skvrna45111012123
WJun 11 · 09:10D. Vitasek3511211113J. Skvrna29611571
WJun 11 · 06:40D. Vitasek4061111123J. Skvrna351177101
D. Vitasek10
LSep 20 · 17:45M. Macurak1.571111113D. Vitasek2.259990LSep 19 · 08:40D. Vitasek1.807111131E. Precek1.9111913113WSep 19 · 08:10D. Vitasek1.831111113E. Precek1.837840LSep 19 · 06:40F. Chaloupka1.5781111113D. Vitasek2.25116891LSep 19 · 06:10J. Travnicek2.7512111110113D. Vitasek1.40105131272LSep 18 · 08:43D. Pawlik1.501311113D. Vitasek2.5011750LSep 18 · 07:45D. Pawlik1.5711119113D. Vitasek2.25331121LSep 18 · 07:15T. Krenek1.571112113D. Vitasek2.2541070LSep 18 · 06:15D. Vitasek2.105121371R. Benes1.67111411113LSep 16 · 08:33D. Vitasek2.001110170T. Kindl1.731312193
J. Skvrna10
LSep 20 · 19:45M. Macurak2.1013118113J. Skvrna1.671171131WSep 20 · 18:15J. Skvrna1.8311811113J. Travnicek1.83711941WSep 18 · 13:15T. Krenek1.83109130J. Skvrna1.831211153LSep 18 · 11:45J. Krupnik1.9161112113J. Skvrna1.801191081WSep 18 · 11:15T. Krenek1.911199111J. Skvrna1.8071111133WSep 18 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.73911115153R. Benes2.00118711132LSep 17 · 13:15J. Skvrna1.801151210102T. Krenek1.919111012123WSep 17 · 11:45J. Krupnik1.9181361182J. Skvrna1.801111118113WSep 17 · 11:15T. Krenek1.91671391J. Skvrna1.80111111113WSep 17 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.67118112153M. Macurak2.10911911132
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