TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13149351
Played Sep 18Finished
Jan Krupnik
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111191210118––
Jan Skvrna
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Krupnik above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 78 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jan Krupnik 25–36 Jan Skvrna Jan Krupnik has won 25 of their 61 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:00What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skvrna
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-36 in 61
Skvrna
Wrong
gap of 11 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krupnik 1579 vs Skvrna 1725
Skvrna
Wrong
both rated, 146 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krupnik 20% vs Skvrna 80%
Skvrna
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krupnik 40% vs Skvrna 80%
Skvrna
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krupnik +1 · Skvrna +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Skvrna) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvrna form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrupnik 1.91 / Skvrna 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Skvrna)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13149351
Krupnik1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog48% won 94 of 195
Down 0–1, comes back28% 23 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 41
Skvrna1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 226 of 382
Up 2–0, closes it94% 73 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it75% 157 of 210
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrupnik2wins
AwaySkvrna8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrupnikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySkvrna75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krupnik2Skvrna8n = 10Skvrna took 8 of 10
S2Krupnik5Skvrna5n = 10split evenly
S3Krupnik7Skvrna3n = 10Krupnik took 7 of 10
S4Krupnik5Skvrna5n = 10split evenly
S5Krupnik0Skvrna5n = 5Skvrna took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrupnikSkvrnaK − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match40.944.5−3.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrupnikSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime459 / 894 vs 477 / 81851.3%58.3%459 / 894 vs 477 / 818Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaKrupnik 1.91/Skvrna 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krupnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 11:45J. Krupnik4681361182J. Skvrna521111118113
LSep 14 · 11:45J. Krupnik5210101111102J. Skvrna51121296123
LSep 13 · 11:40J. Krupnik4311811762J. Skvrna48711811113
LSep 5 · 11:45J. Krupnik4269111152J. Skvrna47111177113
WSep 4 · 07:40J. Krupnik4181111113J. Skvrna32118491
LAug 16 · 16:44J. Krupnik3911211872J. Skvrna521110911113
WAug 16 · 14:45J. Krupnik47111112133J. Skvrna4113710111
LJul 23 · 13:15J. Krupnik29741171J. Skvrna3711114113
LJul 23 · 10:15J. Krupnik381012881J. Skvrna44121011113
LJul 15 · 11:40J. Krupnik32119841J. Skvrna4181111113
J. Krupnik10
WSep 18 · 10:45J. Krupnik1.91911119133R. Benes1.80115411112LSep 18 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.73117381T. Krenek2.0071111113LSep 17 · 12:45M. Macurak1.611111123J. Krupnik2.2057100LSep 17 · 11:45J. Krupnik1.9181361182J. Skvrna1.801111118113LSep 17 · 10:45J. Krupnik2.381391181M. Macurak1.5315119113LSep 17 · 09:45J. Krupnik1.731491191T. Krenek2.0016117113WSep 15 · 13:24J. Krupnik1.8041111123L. Kantor1.911156101WSep 15 · 11:40M. Macurak1.5771111992J. Krupnik2.25115411113WSep 15 · 11:10L. Kantor2.5011631152J. Krupnik1.50911117113LSep 15 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.57911101142D. Jr2.25113124113
J. Skvrna10
WSep 18 · 11:15T. Krenek1.911199111J. Skvrna1.8071111133WSep 18 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.73911115153R. Benes2.00118711132LSep 17 · 13:15J. Skvrna1.801151210102T. Krenek1.919111012123WSep 17 · 11:45J. Krupnik1.9181361182J. Skvrna1.801111118113WSep 17 · 11:15T. Krenek1.91671391J. Skvrna1.80111111113WSep 17 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.67118112153M. Macurak2.10911911132WSep 15 · 13:10T. Krenek2.00113691J. Skvrna1.7381111113WSep 15 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.6712311113T. Grmela2.101011591LSep 15 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.737411111T. Krenek2.0011114133WSep 15 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.671111133L. Slavik2.1045110
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J. Skvrna
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