TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13148855
Played Sep 18Finished
Jan Skvrna
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111181175111513
Radek Benes
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Radek Benes below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 15-13
Point 101 set 5, 15-13 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Jan Skvrna 53–38 Radek Benes Radek Benes has won 38 of their 91 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:09What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-38 in 91
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 15 in 91, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvrna 1687 vs Benes 1634
Skvrna
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvrna 80% vs Benes 60%
Skvrna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvrna 70% vs Benes 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvrna -1 · Benes -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Skvrna) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvrna form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvrna 1.73 / Benes 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Skvrna)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13148855
Skvrna1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 226 of 382
Up 2–0, closes it94% 73 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it75% 157 of 210
Benes2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 58 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back25% 19 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvrna2wins
AwayBenes8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvrnan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBenes100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvrna2Benes8n = 10Benes took 8 of 10
S2Skvrna6Benes4n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S3Skvrna6Benes4n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S4Skvrna2Benes6n = 8Benes took 6 of 8
S5Skvrna0Benes3n = 3Benes took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvrnaBenesS − BBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.740.2−3.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvrnaBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime475 / 817 vs 497 / 95258.1%52.2%475 / 817 vs 497 / 952Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSkvrna 1.73/Benes 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 13:15J. Skvrna35812781R. Benes43111011113
LSep 14 · 11:15J. Skvrna35781281R. Benes43111110113
WSep 9 · 11:40J. Skvrna4311811133R. Benes376119111
LAug 31 · 13:05J. Skvrna4671311962R. Benes531111911113
LAug 31 · 11:10J. Skvrna25711251R. Benes4111811113
LAug 25 · 13:09J. Skvrna4271111672R. Benes47115911113
LAug 25 · 10:40J. Skvrna227870R. Benes331111113
WAug 11 · 07:40J. Skvrna331111113R. Benes179440
LAug 6 · 13:23J. Skvrna34911681R. Benes3711411113
LAug 6 · 10:40J. Skvrna52714111192R. Benes51111658113
J. Skvrna10
LSep 18 · 11:45J. Krupnik1.9161112113J. Skvrna1.801191081WSep 18 · 11:15T. Krenek1.911199111J. Skvrna1.8071111133LSep 17 · 13:15J. Skvrna1.801151210102T. Krenek1.919111012123WSep 17 · 11:45J. Krupnik1.9181361182J. Skvrna1.801111118113WSep 17 · 11:15T. Krenek1.91671391J. Skvrna1.80111111113WSep 17 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.67118112153M. Macurak2.10911911132WSep 15 · 13:10T. Krenek2.00113691J. Skvrna1.7381111113WSep 15 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.6712311113T. Grmela2.101011591LSep 15 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.737411111T. Krenek2.0011114133WSep 15 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.671111133L. Slavik2.1045110
R. Benes10
LSep 18 · 10:45J. Krupnik1.91911119133R. Benes1.80115411112LSep 18 · 09:13T. Krenek1.8311811113R. Benes1.83811571LSep 18 · 08:15R. Benes1.73811691T. Krenek2.0011811113WSep 18 · 06:45D. Pawlik1.916121191R. Benes1.8011144113WSep 18 · 06:15D. Vitasek2.105121371R. Benes1.67111411113WSep 17 · 09:15R. Benes1.6211811113L. Slavik2.02511781WSep 17 · 08:15D. Jr1.731171271R. Benes2.0051114113WSep 17 · 07:15R. Benes1.80841111113T. Kindl1.9111116762WSep 17 · 05:45L. Slavik1.83116761R. Benes1.8381111113WSep 14 · 13:15R. Benes2.00111011113J. Skvrna1.73812781
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