TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158478
Played Sep 19Finished
Daniel Vitasek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111191113311––
Erik Precek
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeErik Precek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Vitasek above · Erik Precek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 76 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Erik Precek at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Vitasek 16–17 Erik Precek Daniel Vitasek has won 16 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Vitasek beat Precek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:36What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vitasek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-17 in 33
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vitasek 1535 vs Precek 1478
Vitasek
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vitasek 20% vs Precek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vitasek 20% vs Precek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vitasek +1 · Precek -3
Precek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vitasek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Precek form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVitasek 1.80 / Precek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vitasek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13158478
Vitasek1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite49% won 63 of 128
Up 2–0, closes it100% 33 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it74% 49 of 66
Precek1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog41% won 57 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back23% 18 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVitasek5wins
AwayPrecek5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVitasek66.7%4 of 6
AwayPrecek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vitasek6Precek4n = 10Vitasek took 6 of 10
S2Vitasek4Precek6n = 10Precek took 6 of 10
S3Vitasek7Precek3n = 10Vitasek took 7 of 10
S4Vitasek3Precek2n = 5Vitasek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVitasekPrecekV − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.336.7+1.6per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVitasekPrecekBasisWin rate · lifetime299 / 624 vs 219 / 47247.9%46.4%299 / 624 vs 219 / 472Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VitasekVitasek 1.80/Precek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vitasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Precek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 08:10D. Vitasek331111113E. Precek197840
LSep 12 · 15:10D. Vitasek31121090E. Precek371412113
WAug 30 · 07:45D. Vitasek4781115133E. Precek4111613111
LAug 16 · 11:15D. Vitasek47116611132E. Precek54811119153
WJul 18 · 20:48D. Vitasek361111143E. Precek2778120
LJul 18 · 19:40D. Vitasek54115191092E. Precek576111712113
LJun 27 · 12:45D. Vitasek239590E. Precek331111113
WJun 27 · 10:15D. Vitasek331111113E. Precek237970
LJun 11 · 06:10D. Vitasek356101181E. Precek4211128113
WJun 10 · 08:45D. Vitasek4411911133E. Precek347115111
D. Vitasek10
WSep 19 · 08:10D. Vitasek1.831111113E. Precek1.837840LSep 19 · 06:40F. Chaloupka1.5781111113D. Vitasek2.25116891LSep 19 · 06:10J. Travnicek2.7512111110113D. Vitasek1.40105131272LSep 18 · 08:43D. Pawlik1.501311113D. Vitasek2.5011750LSep 18 · 07:45D. Pawlik1.5711119113D. Vitasek2.25331121LSep 18 · 07:15T. Krenek1.571112113D. Vitasek2.2541070LSep 18 · 06:15D. Vitasek2.105121371R. Benes1.67111411113LSep 16 · 08:33D. Vitasek2.001110170T. Kindl1.731312193WSep 16 · 08:10T. Kindl1.834790D. Vitasek1.831111113LSep 16 · 07:10D. Vitasek2.007760L. Slavik1.731111113
E. Precek10
LSep 19 · 08:10D. Vitasek1.831111113E. Precek1.837840LSep 19 · 07:10E. Precek2.10814110J. Travnicek1.671116133LSep 19 · 05:40F. Chaloupka1.53111197113E. Precek2.3859111192WSep 18 · 08:44T. Kindl1.8361181152E. Precek1.83115116113LSep 18 · 07:40T. Kindl1.91138911113E. Precek1.80111111672LSep 18 · 07:10L. Kantor1.8351111123E. Precek1.831189101LSep 18 · 06:10E. Precek2.7569100R. Sedlacek1.401111123LSep 17 · 12:43E. Precek1.916880D. Pawlik1.801111113WSep 17 · 11:40E. Precek2.38314115113D. Pawlik1.53111291192LSep 17 · 10:40E. Precek1.80108100D. Jr1.911211123
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