TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13152676
Played Sep 18Finished
Dominik Pawlik
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1311117115––––
Daniel Vitasek
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
How it is goingDominik Pawlik above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 58 set 3, 11-5
58 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Pawlik 5–1 Daniel Vitasek Daniel Vitasek has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Pawlik beat Vitasek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Pawlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPawlik 1.50 / Vitasek 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Pawlik)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13152676
Pawlik1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 61 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it80% 49 of 61
Vitasek2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog50% won 88 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back25% 24 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomePawlik5wins
AwayVitasek1wins
1 of 6 to a deciderPawlik leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePawlik80%4 of 5
AwayVitasekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pawlik5Vitasek1n = 6Pawlik took 5 of 6
S2Pawlik5Vitasek1n = 6Pawlik took 5 of 6
S3Pawlik3Vitasek3n = 6split evenly
S4Pawlik2Vitasek2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricPawlikVitasekP − VBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match38.826.3+12.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPawlikVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime239 / 476 vs 298 / 62050.2%48.1%239 / 476 vs 298 / 620Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikPawlik 1.50/Vitasek 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pawlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 18 · 07:45D. Pawlik4211119113D. Vitasek19331121
WAug 24 · 08:10D. Pawlik331111113D. Vitasek182880
WJun 5 · 08:45D. Pawlik4111118113D. Vitasek25271151
LJun 5 · 05:45D. Pawlik361178101D. Vitasek4171111123
WMar 28 · 15:15D. Pawlik46411119113D. Vitasek3111331132
WMar 23 · 14:40D. Pawlik351211123D. Vitasek24104100
D. Pawlik10
WSep 18 · 07:45D. Pawlik1.5711119113D. Vitasek2.25331121LSep 18 · 06:45D. Pawlik1.916121191R. Benes1.8011144113LSep 18 · 05:45D. Pawlik1.80811911102T. Krenek1.91115119123WSep 17 · 12:43E. Precek1.916880D. Pawlik1.801111113LSep 17 · 11:40E. Precek2.38314115113D. Pawlik1.53111291192LSep 17 · 11:10L. Kantor2.3811115123D. Pawlik1.534611101LSep 17 · 10:10D. Pawlik2.38911891D. Jr1.5311511113LSep 16 · 13:10M. Moravec1.731112123D. Pawlik2.00710100WSep 16 · 11:40D. Pawlik1.731281111113T. Kindl2.0014117992LSep 16 · 10:40D. Pawlik1.8314960M. Moravec1.831611113
D. Vitasek10
LSep 18 · 07:45D. Pawlik1.5711119113D. Vitasek2.25331121LSep 18 · 07:15T. Krenek1.571112113D. Vitasek2.2541070LSep 18 · 06:15D. Vitasek2.105121371R. Benes1.67111411113LSep 16 · 08:33D. Vitasek2.001110170T. Kindl1.731312193WSep 16 · 08:10T. Kindl1.834790D. Vitasek1.831111113LSep 16 · 07:10D. Vitasek2.007760L. Slavik1.731111113LSep 16 · 05:40M. Macurak2.001111113D. Vitasek1.736860LSep 14 · 21:10I. Heuman2.00111111123D. Vitasek1.739913101WSep 14 · 19:40J. Travnicek2.00211591D. Vitasek1.7311311113LSep 14 · 19:10I. Heuman1.831111113D. Vitasek1.837680
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