TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Jan Skvrna
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117811119114––
Jakub Travnicek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Skvrna above · Jakub Travnicek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 72 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jan Skvrna 6–4 Jakub Travnicek Jakub Travnicek has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:32What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Travnicek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvrna 1725 vs Travnicek 1624
Skvrna
Correct
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvrna 60% vs Travnicek 80%
Travnicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvrna 80% vs Travnicek 60%
Skvrna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvrna +1 · Travnicek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skvrna)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Travnicek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvrna 1.83 / Travnicek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skvrna)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13163220
Skvrna1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Travnicek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvrna6wins
AwayTravnicek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvrna60%3 of 5
AwayTravnicek40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvrna5Travnicek5n = 10split evenly
S2Skvrna6Travnicek4n = 10Skvrna took 6 of 10
S3Skvrna7Travnicek3n = 10Skvrna took 7 of 10
S4Skvrna4Travnicek5n = 9Travnicek took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvrnaTravnicekS − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.536.9+3.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvrnaTravnicekBasisWin rate · lifetime478 / 820 vs 212 / 42358.3%50.1%478 / 820 vs 212 / 423Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaSkvrna 1.83/Travnicek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 4 · 09:45J. Skvrna45121111113J. Travnicek34146681
WMay 6 · 19:45J. Skvrna48126118113J. Travnicek44101141182
WMar 22 · 16:45J. Skvrna44111111113J. Travnicek28541361
WMar 11 · 22:15J. Skvrna331111113J. Travnicek166730
LMar 11 · 20:15J. Skvrna57131115992J. Travnicek5911131311113
WMar 5 · 20:45J. Skvrna4291111113J. Travnicek30115861
LFeb 26 · 20:45J. Skvrna30411691J. Travnicek4211911113
WFeb 19 · 18:40J. Skvrna4381113113J. Travnicek331171141
LFeb 7 · 21:40J. Skvrna33861181J. Travnicek4211119113
LFeb 7 · 20:45J. Skvrna30119551J. Travnicek4181111113
J. Skvrna10
LSep 20 · 19:45M. Macurak2.1013118113J. Skvrna1.671171131WSep 20 · 19:15D. Vitasek2.6351211121J. Skvrna1.4411148143WSep 18 · 13:15T. Krenek1.83109130J. Skvrna1.831211153LSep 18 · 11:45J. Krupnik1.9161112113J. Skvrna1.801191081WSep 18 · 11:15T. Krenek1.911199111J. Skvrna1.8071111133WSep 18 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.73911115153R. Benes2.00118711132LSep 17 · 13:15J. Skvrna1.801151210102T. Krenek1.919111012123WSep 17 · 11:45J. Krupnik1.9181361182J. Skvrna1.801111118113WSep 17 · 11:15T. Krenek1.91671391J. Skvrna1.80111111113WSep 17 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.67118112153M. Macurak2.10911911132
J. Travnicek10
LSep 20 · 18:45M. Macurak1.671091112113J. Travnicek2.10121141072WSep 19 · 09:09F. Chaloupka1.508570J. Travnicek2.501111113LSep 19 · 07:40F. Chaloupka1.611111113J. Travnicek2.208970WSep 19 · 07:10E. Precek2.10814110J. Travnicek1.671116133WSep 19 · 06:10J. Travnicek2.7512111110113D. Vitasek1.40105131272WSep 18 · 21:15J. Travnicek1.911211113A. Kanak1.8010680LSep 18 · 19:40J. Travnicek2.10711110K. Kleprlik1.671113133WSep 18 · 18:40J. Travnicek1.831011116123A. Kanak1.83125811102WSep 18 · 17:40J. Travnicek1.831112113D. Jr1.8371090LSep 15 · 21:08D. Stusek1.7311811113J. Travnicek2.00711271
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J. Travnicek
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