TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Michal Macurak
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119119119––––
Daniel Vitasek
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Macurak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Macurak above · Daniel Vitasek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 60 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Michal Macurak at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Michal Macurak 8–13 Daniel Vitasek Michal Macurak has won 8 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:32What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Macurak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-13 in 21
Vitasek
Wrong
gap of 5 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Macurak 1693 vs Vitasek 1497
Macurak
Correct
both rated, 196 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Macurak 60% vs Vitasek 20%
Macurak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Macurak 60% vs Vitasek 20%
Macurak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Macurak +1 · Vitasek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Macurak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vitasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMacurak 1.57 / Vitasek 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Macurak)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13163208
Macurak1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 17)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 65 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it79% 44 of 56
Vitasek2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 87 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back24% 23 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMacurak4wins
AwayVitasek6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderVitasek leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMacurak66.7%4 of 6
AwayVitasek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Macurak6Vitasek4n = 10Macurak took 6 of 10
S2Macurak4Vitasek6n = 10Vitasek took 6 of 10
S3Macurak4Vitasek6n = 10Vitasek took 6 of 10
S4Macurak2Vitasek5n = 7Vitasek took 5 of 7
S5Macurak3Vitasek3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMacurakVitasekM − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.141.10.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMacurakVitasekBasisWin rate · lifetime254 / 496 vs 299 / 62551.2%47.8%254 / 496 vs 299 / 625Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MacurakMacurak 1.57/Vitasek 2.25
Hit
What we said
62.1%
Macurak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Macurak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 05:40M. Macurak331111113D. Vitasek206860
WAug 12 · 18:45M. Macurak491111214113D. Vitasek4458111642
LAug 11 · 21:15M. Macurak2688100D. Vitasek341111123
LAug 11 · 19:40M. Macurak2461080D. Vitasek341112113
WJul 18 · 17:40M. Macurak471111104113D. Vitasek4073121172
LJul 16 · 17:45M. Macurak49111212682D. Vitasek526141011113
LJun 28 · 13:40M. Macurak49711111282D. Vitasek491113410113
WJun 25 · 17:40M. Macurak50141177113D. Vitasek45125111162
LJun 19 · 06:45M. Macurak46119101152D. Vitasek48711127113
LApr 5 · 17:10M. Macurak385131191D. Vitasek4511158113
M. Macurak10
WSep 17 · 12:45M. Macurak1.611111123J. Krupnik2.2057100LSep 17 · 12:15M. Macurak1.837111051T. Krenek1.8311212113WSep 17 · 10:45J. Krupnik2.381391181M. Macurak1.5315119113LSep 17 · 10:15J. Skvrna1.67118112153M. Macurak2.10911911132WSep 16 · 09:04L. Slavik1.6751080M. Macurak2.101112113LSep 16 · 07:40M. Macurak1.83114111192L. Slavik1.83131117113WSep 16 · 06:40M. Macurak1.831011118113T. Kindl1.8312651112WSep 16 · 05:40M. Macurak2.001111113D. Vitasek1.736860WSep 15 · 16:45M. Macurak1.671111113B. Mrowetz2.107690LSep 15 · 15:45B. Moravec1.5071311113M. Macurak2.501111551
D. Vitasek10
LSep 19 · 08:40D. Vitasek1.807111131E. Precek1.9111913113WSep 19 · 08:10D. Vitasek1.831111113E. Precek1.837840LSep 19 · 06:40F. Chaloupka1.5781111113D. Vitasek2.25116891LSep 19 · 06:10J. Travnicek2.7512111110113D. Vitasek1.40105131272LSep 18 · 08:43D. Pawlik1.501311113D. Vitasek2.5011750LSep 18 · 07:45D. Pawlik1.5711119113D. Vitasek2.25331121LSep 18 · 07:15T. Krenek1.571112113D. Vitasek2.2541070LSep 18 · 06:15D. Vitasek2.105121371R. Benes1.67111411113LSep 16 · 08:33D. Vitasek2.001110170T. Kindl1.731312193LSep 16 · 05:40M. Macurak2.001111113D. Vitasek1.736860
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